Kaleb Johnson

Jaylen Warren recently signed a 2-year extension worth $12M guaranteed, tying him through 2027, establishing him as the unquestioned lead back. Kenneth Gainwell remains the clear #2, with Johnson unlikely to have a fantasy-relevant role as long as both remain healthy.

Johnson's rookie year is looking like a redshirt season with disappointing touches, and his dynasty ranking is trending downward despite first-round rookie draft investment. Through 2025, Johnson has just 28 rushing attempts for 69 yards across his entire career.

Through his entire 2025 rookie season, Johnson managed just 28 rushing attempts for 69 yards with seven healthy scratches. RBs need early touches to develop NFL rhythm; this redshirt year risks Johnson never establishing himself even when opportunity arrives.

Johnson's snap share declined from 12% to 3% across his final four games of 2025, with zero target share all season. His full 2025 line — 28 carries, 69 yards across 10 games — is well below any threshold needed to sustain dynasty value at his tier.

The 'warren_ufa_in_2026' opportunity flag is now moot — Warren signed a 2-year extension through 2027 ($17.5M total, $12M guaranteed). The single most important near-term catalyst for Johnson's dynasty upside has been eliminated for at least two seasons.

If Pittsburgh moves on from current depth-chart options or injuries occur, Johnson's elite college production profile positions him to quickly command a featured role.

Warren is an unrestricted free agent in 2026, meaning Johnson could inherit a feature role if Pittsburgh doesn't retain Warren or if the team drafts another RB option.

Gainwell hits free agency in March 2026 and some insiders project he'll test the market. If Pittsburgh doesn't retain him, Johnson inherits the RB2/pass-catching role behind Warren, creating immediate fantasy relevance.

McCarthy's offense is philosophically run-heavy and ball-control oriented, rewarding multi-faceted backs with meaningful weekly usage. If Johnson climbs the depth chart via injury or attrition, the scheme is a tailwind rather than a headwind.

If both Warren and Dowdle miss significant time, Johnson becomes the de facto lead back in a committed run-heavy offense. Even two or three high-volume games could reset his dynasty floor and buying opportunity for patient managers.