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Juwan Johnson headshot

Juwan Johnson

TE · #25

NO · TE · Age 29

Redraft rank
TE20
•TE20 · Flex play
Tier
T3
Overall
#156
ADP
TE20
Consensus
Some split

Juwan Johnson's career-high production in 2025 (77 receptions, 889 yards) is partly due to a decimated WR room and may not hold with Chris Olave healthy and rookie Jordyn Tyson drafted.

Role & trajectory
Johnson's target share fell week-over-week in the final weeks of 2025, while Noah Fant's signing and rookie Oscar Delp's draft position suggest competition for snaps and targets is increasing.
Projected outlook
Despite a contract restructure securing his role through 2027, Johnson's snap share trended downward in the final weeks of 2025, indicating potential volume erosion with new WR depth and Fant's presence.
Risk & schedule
Johnson faces a thin dynasty ceiling at age 29.4, entering the typical decline phase for tight ends, while Noah Fant's signing directly pressures his target share and red-zone targets.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
TE20
vs
Market ADP
TE20
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Source agreement
±6 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Neutral: Projection rank, ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-29 tight ends most similar to Juwan Johnson's 2025 season, 4 finished TE1, 2 finished TE2, 3 finished TE3, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

41%20%29%
  • TE141%(4)
  • TE220%(2)
  • TE329%(3)
  • Missed season11%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range9.3 median
2.7p25–p75 7.4–10.714.8
10 most similar players
Zach Ertz88%
2020·TE34 · 7.0 PPG
Jared Cook86%
2018·Missed the season
Jimmy Graham86%
2018·TE11 · 8.2 PPG
Travis Kelce85%
2019·TE1 · 16.8 PPG
Tyler Conklin84%
2024·TE20 · 7.6 PPG
Dalton Schultz83%
2025·TE7 · 9.9 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionStrong target shareAge 29 · veteran
Our view vs Market↑ 16 pts above market
Our view
71
Market
55
Low draft pedigreeProducing above valueElite target share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Age Concerns3

    At 29.4 years old, Johnson is entering the typical decline phase for tight ends. Limited runway remains for sustained dynasty value at the position where peak years are typically 25-28.

  • WR Depth Competition

    Chris Olave (1,163 yards in 2025) is the clear WR1. With Devaughn Vele and potential draft additions, the Saints are investing heavily in WR depth. Johnson's target share could be diluted if offensive spending shifts away from TE.

  • Target Competition

    The Saints signed Noah Fant to a 2-year, $8.75M contract in free agency — a legitimate veteran TE who logged 34 catches and 3 TDs with Cincinnati in 2025. Fant is not a depth signing; he directly pressures Johnson's snap share and red-zone targets.

  • Offensive Context

    New Orleans used the No. 8 overall pick on WR Jordyn Tyson who joins Chris Olave in a significantly upgraded receiver room. With more mouths to feed under a second-year QB managing his progression, Johnson's 15% target share ceiling is compressed.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Career Year 2025

    Johnson posted career highs of 77 receptions and 889 yards while playing all 17 games. He established himself as the 2nd receiving option behind Olave, averaging 52 yards per game.

  • Shough Rapport

    Johnson flourished with rookie QB Tyler Shough, serving as a reliable safety valve and middle-of-field target. The chemistry suggests continued target volume if Shough progresses as a sophomore.

  • Red Zone Ceiling

    Despite 2025 success, Johnson only had 6 red-zone targets (Saints ranked lowest in scoring). If New Orleans improves its red-zone efficiency and commits to Johnson as a TD target, upside exists.

  • QB Chemistry

    Johnson built strong rapport with Tyler Shough (now confirmed 2026 starter), who averaged 15.65 PPR points with Johnson in late-season games. Shough's development as a sophomore could sustain Johnson's safety-valve role.

  • Scheme Fit

    New Orleans is actively investing in pass catchers to support Shough's development, giving Johnson a favorable offensive environment with Chris Olave commanding CB1 attention and opening intermediate-to-seam routes for the TE.

  • Offensive Context

    Year 2 QB development jumps are historically the largest. If Shough makes that leap with a legitimate WR1 (Tyson), the whole offense becomes more efficient and Johnson — a trusted short-area safety valve — benefits from higher-volume passing attempts.

Format Comparison

Juwan Johnson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,369—
PPR SF1,254-115