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Justin Joly headshot

Justin Joly

TE · #40

DEN · TE · Age 22

Redraft rank
TE44
•TE44 · Depth+6 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T3
Overall
#279
ADP
TE50
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP+6 slots of value
Our rank
TE44
vs
Market ADP
TE50
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
TE50 ADP · +6 slots
Notable
+
Age / role
age 22 TE
Minor
Case against
−
Projection rank
TE44 · proj. consensus
Notable
Neutral: Source agreement
Analysis

Joly is a 21-year-old rookie 'move' TE who signed his four-year deal in May and projects as Denver's TE3-or-lower behind Evan Engram and the entrenched Y, Adam Trautman, in a deeper room than his value tier suggests (Adkins, Krull, Bentley also present). Expect negligible 2026 production — this is a developmental stash, not a contributor. The bull case is real but deferred: Engram (31) is on a deal that voids after 2026, so the move-TE role Joly fits in Payton's TE-friendly scheme could open in 2027, and his All-ACC production, red-zone catch radius, and ascending Bo Nix offense give the profile genuine upside. The bear case is a crowded depth chart and fifth-round pedigree leaving him a perpetual backup or roster-bubble body. At a trade value near 2,000 he is a low-cost speculative HOLD/cheap BUY in deeper TE-premium dynasty leagues — acquire only at minimal cost and bank on the 2027 role opening, with a 1-2 year horizon before any payoff.

Also see:

Prospect Profile2026 Class

23.7Composite Score

Composite Breakdown

Each row compares Justin Joly to other 2026 prospects in that signal — except Class × Draft Slot, which shows the editorial multiplier applied to Justin Joly's 2026-class + draft-slot combo (baseline 1.00× = neutral).

Computed from 3 of 6 signals

  • Draft Capital25%▼~averageRound 5, Pick 140
  • Combine Athletic17%
  • Rookie ADP17%
  • Expert Consensus17%•~average
  • College Production15%
  • Class × Draft Slot9%▲+5% (1.05×)+5% (1.05×)0.60

Class rank: 52nd percentile

BMI
19%

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (10 flags)

Risk Flags

4
  • Path to Snaps

    Evan Engram is Denver's primary receiving TE on a contract running through 2026, leaving Joly in a rotational/developmental role for his entire rookie season with limited fantasy production expected.

  • Draft Capital

    Despite being a 3rd/4th round talent per Dane Brugler, Joly went 152nd overall (5th round), which carries inherent bust risk and may limit roster priority and guaranteed snaps in a crowded TE room.

  • Position Maturity

    Joly is a converted wide receiver who only fully transitioned to TE at UConn in 2022; NFL blocking refinement and route complexity at the position historically delay fantasy relevance by 2-3 years.

  • Development Concerns

    Coaches have publicly asked Joly to report at a 'lighter weight' in 2026, a minor conditioning flag layered onto the standard multi-year TE development curve. Rookie TEs almost never produce immediately.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Role Succession

    Evan Engram is 32 years old on a contract expiring after 2026, and the Broncos drafted Joly explicitly as his heir apparent — a direct succession path to the starting TE role in 2027 is already baked into the roster construction.

  • Scheme Fit

    Denver frequently deploys 12-personnel packages, which is the exact environment where Joly's move-TE skillset (seam stretching, YAC, zone-beating underneath routes) thrives at the next level.

  • Age & Upside

    At just 21 years old (born July 9, 2004) with First-Team All-ACC honors and PFF 77.7 in 2025, Joly has elite YAC ability (2nd among all FBS TEs in missed tackles forced since 2022) and a high developmental ceiling.

  • Injury Upside

    If Engram misses time in 2026, Joly would inherit an immediate featured role in a pass-friendly offense under Bo Nix, potentially accelerating his dynasty timeline by a full year.

  • Offensive Context

    Lands with an ascending Bo Nix and a strong supporting cast (Waddle, Sutton, Harvey), meaning if a role opens it comes attached to a functional, scoring offense rather than a dead-end situation.

  • Youth Upside

    Young TE (21) — still in value appreciation phase

Format Comparison

Justin Joly — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest831—
PPR SF830-1