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TE #240
Justin Joly headshot
Justin Joly headshot

Justin Joly

Tier 13

DEN · TE · Age 21

Last synced 1 day ago

Dynasty Value

832Rising

Joly is a 21-year-old rookie 'move' TE who signed his four-year deal in May and projects as Denver's TE3-or-lower behind Evan Engram and the entrenched Y, Adam...

Trajectory data unavailable

Prospect Profile2026 Class

70.9Composite Score

Market View

  • KTC(consensus market)1,524
  • FantasyCalc(algorithmic)910
  • Spread▼−40%

Composite Breakdown

Each row compares Justin Joly to other 2026 prospects in that signal — except Class × Draft Slot, which shows the editorial multiplier applied to Justin Joly's 2026-class + draft-slot combo (baseline 1.00× = neutral).

Computed from 3 of 6 signals

  • Draft Capital25%▲top 20%Round 5, Pick 12
  • Combine Athletic17%
  • Rookie ADP17%
  • Expert Consensus17%▲top 21%ECR #36
  • College Production15%
  • Class × Draft Slot9%▲+10% (1.10×)+10% (1.10×)

Class rank: 87th percentile

BMI
19%

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (10 flags)

Risk Flags

4
  • Path to Snaps

    Evan Engram is Denver's primary receiving TE on a contract running through 2026, leaving Joly in a rotational/developmental role for his entire rookie season with limited fantasy production expected.

  • Draft Capital

    Despite being a 3rd/4th round talent per Dane Brugler, Joly went 152nd overall (5th round), which carries inherent bust risk and may limit roster priority and guaranteed snaps in a crowded TE room.

  • Position Maturity

    Joly is a converted wide receiver who only fully transitioned to TE at UConn in 2022; NFL blocking refinement and route complexity at the position historically delay fantasy relevance by 2-3 years.

  • Development Concerns

    Coaches have publicly asked Joly to report at a 'lighter weight' in 2026, a minor conditioning flag layered onto the standard multi-year TE development curve. Rookie TEs almost never produce immediately.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Role Succession

    Evan Engram is 32 years old on a contract expiring after 2026, and the Broncos drafted Joly explicitly as his heir apparent — a direct succession path to the starting TE role in 2027 is already baked into the roster construction.

  • Scheme Fit

    Denver frequently deploys 12-personnel packages, which is the exact environment where Joly's move-TE skillset (seam stretching, YAC, zone-beating underneath routes) thrives at the next level.

  • Age & Upside

    At just 21 years old (born July 9, 2004) with First-Team All-ACC honors and PFF 77.7 in 2025, Joly has elite YAC ability (2nd among all FBS TEs in missed tackles forced since 2022) and a high developmental ceiling.

  • Injury Upside

    If Engram misses time in 2026, Joly would inherit an immediate featured role in a pass-friendly offense under Bo Nix, potentially accelerating his dynasty timeline by a full year.

  • Offensive Context

    Lands with an ascending Bo Nix and a strong supporting cast (Waddle, Sutton, Harvey), meaning if a role opens it comes attached to a functional, scoring offense rather than a dead-end situation.

  • Youth Upside

    Young TE (21) — still in value appreciation phase

Scenarios (4)
  • Engram voids, Joly inherits move rolepossible+35%

    Engram's contract voids after 2026 and Denver lets him walk, opening the F/move-TE job

  • Orderly Year 2-3 ascent to TE2possible+20%

    Strong camp/special-teams role secures the roster spot and earns rotational snaps that grow by 2027

  • Engram injury accelerates timelinepossible+25%

    An injury to Engram or Trautman during 2026 forces Joly into meaningful red-zone snaps

  • Buried / roster-bubble depth piecepossible-30%

    Loses the camp battle with Bentley/Adkins and never carves out a target share behind a deep room

Format Comparison

Justin Joly — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest832—
PPR 1QB579-253