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Justin Herbert headshot

Justin Herbert

QB · #8

LAC · QB · Age 28

Redraft rank
QB12
•QB12 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#19
ADP
QB11
Consensus
Coin flip

Justin Herbert's late-2025 rushing surge, with a carry share trending up to around 21.3%, adds a robust floor to his weekly scoring independent of the new offensive system.

Role & trajectory
Herbert remains the Chargers' unquestioned franchise QB at 28, with no drafted or acquired competition threatening his role.
Projected outlook
The addition of OC Mike McDaniel's system and a fortified offensive line positions Herbert for a passing-volume and efficiency jump in 2026.
Risk & schedule
First-year install friction could produce early-season inefficiency, and the durability tax from increased rushing involvement adds hit exposure risk.
Value vs ADP-1 slots (reach)
Our rank
QB12
vs
Market ADP
QB11
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
QB12 · proj. consensus
Notable
Case against
−
Source agreement
±9 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-27 quarterbacks most similar to Justin Herbert's 2025 season, 4 finished QB1, 2 finished QB2, 3 finished QB4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

40%20%30%
  • QB140%(4)
  • QB220%(2)
  • QB4+30%(3)
  • Missed season10%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range16.0 median
0.0p25–p75 9.5–18.621.2
10 most similar players
Tyrod Taylor97%
2018·QB39 · 10.4 PPG
Patrick Mahomes95%
2024·QB7 · 18.3 PPG
Lamar Jackson94%
2025·QB21 · 16.5 PPG
Kyler Murray94%
2025·QB38 · 15.6 PPG
Marcus Mariota93%
2023·Missed the season
Jalen Hurts93%
2025·QB8 · 18.4 PPG

+4 more analogs

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Durability Risk

    Herbert's carry share trended up through 2025 (45%) and he set a career high in rushing yards while extending plays behind a shaky line, a pattern that directly led to the scramble hit that fractured his non-throwing hand and required in-season surgery.

  • Coaching Continuity

    New OC Mike McDaniel has reworked Herbert's shotgun footwork to speed up his release, and first-year scheme installs commonly produce early-season timing friction with the receiving corps before the mechanical gains show up in production.

Opportunity Flags

3
  • Scheme Fit

    New OC Mike McDaniel has specifically retooled Herbert's shotgun mechanics for a quicker release and more YAC, and has intentionally scaled back Herbert's offseason throwing load to keep him fresh for a real run at 'the next level of his career' per Harbaugh and McDaniel's own comments.

  • Offensive Context

    The return of tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt gives Herbert his deepest, healthiest offensive line in years, which should cut down on the pressure and scramble situations that drove his 2025 hand injury and career-high rushing volume.

  • Usage & Volume

    Herbert faces zero real competition at QB (Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei are pure backups) and closed 2025 on a 100% snap share across his final four games, guaranteeing every-down volume into 2026.

Format Comparison

Justin Herbert — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest6,712—
PPR 1QB3,895-2,817