Justin Fields

QB · #40

KC · QB · Age 27

Redraft rank

QB38

QB38 · Depth

Tier

Overall

#355

ADP

QB30

Consensus

Some split

Justin Fields enters the 2026 season as Kansas City's QB2, with his value contingent on Patrick Mahomes' injury status and a potential starting job in free agency.

Role & trajectory

Fields has a clear path to start early in the season if Patrick Mahomes is not ready, but once Mahomes returns from his ACL/LCL rehab (expected ~9-month timeline), Fields faces stiff competition for snaps and carries from both Mahomes and rookie Garrett Nussmeier.

Projected outlook

Fields' rushing-heavy profile offers a high streaming floor, with a carry share potentially reaching up to 39% when he starts. However, his value is limited by the likelihood of reduced volume once Mahomes returns and secures the starting job.

Risk & schedule

The primary risk for Fields lies in the competition from Patrick Mahomes and rookie Garrett Nussmeier, who could limit his playing time and touch share. Additionally, Fields' expiring contract means he must find an open starting job in 2027 free agency to maintain value.

Value vs ADP-8 slots (reach)

Our rank

QB38

Market ADP

QB30

Drafted earlier than the projection supports.

What’s driving the season rank

Case for

Source agreement

±6 rank σ · 2 sources

Minor

Case against

Projection rank

QB38 · proj. consensus

Notable

ADP value

QB30 ADP · -8 slots

Major

Neutral: Age / role

What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-26 quarterbacks most similar to Justin Fields's 2025 season, 4 finished QB1, 2 finished QB3, 4 finished QB4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span QB4+ → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

41%20%39%

QB141%(4)
QB320%(2)
QB4+39%(4)

Next-season PPG range13.4 median

0.8p25–p75 1.4–21.024.8

10 most similar players

Marcus Mariota88%

2019QB32 · 9.5 PPG

Patrick Mahomes82%

2021QB2 · 23.0 PPG

Brandon Allen79%

2021QB52 · 2.8 PPG

Dak Prescott79%

2021QB8 · 20.1 PPG

Bo Nix78%

2025QB6 · 18.3 PPG

Jacoby Brissett71%

2020QB46 · 1.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Our read vs. the market

Beta

No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

QB Dependency
Fields is the QB2 behind franchise cornerstone Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City; once Mahomes is healthy there is no path to sustained snaps or fantasy-relevant volume, capping Fields' dynasty value as a contingent asset.
Contract Situation
Acquired from the Jets in March 2026 for only a 2027 6th (NY eating $7M of his $10M), Fields is on an expiring deal trending toward journeyman-backup status; his value is hostage to either a Mahomes injury or finding an open starting job in 2027 free agency.

Opportunity Flags

Usage & Volume
Mahomes is rehabbing a torn ACL/LCL (mid-Dec 2025, ~9-month timeline) with his Week 1 status uncertain, and Andy Reid has publicly called Fields a 'legitimate starting quarterback' he'd play early — opening a real near-term starting window.
Rushing Floor
Fields' designed-run profile (carry share up to 39%, 4 rushing TDs, dual-threat scrambling) gives him a high streaming floor whenever he starts, making him a useful QB-needy bye-week/spot asset even in a backup role.

Format Comparison

Justin Fields — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR SFBest	1,052	—
PPR 1QB	893	-159

Format

Value

vs Best

PPR SFBest

1,052

—

PPR 1QB

893

-159