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Justice Hill headshot

Justice Hill

RB · #91

BAL · RB · Age 28

Redraft rank
RB52
•RB52 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#238
ADP
RB51
Consensus
Coin flip

Justice Hill's 21 catches in just 10 games last season highlight his receiving ability, but a crowded backfield and injury concerns limit his upside.

Role & trajectory
Hill's carry share of 3.6% and snap share of 38.4% indicate he is primarily a pass-down back behind Derrick Henry, with limited rushing volume.
Projected outlook
At Tier 7, Hill offers low-cost handcuff/PPR-dart potential but his role and competition context suggest limited upside without significant injury to Derrick Henry.
Risk & schedule
Hill faces competition from rookie Adam Randall (R5) and others for passing-down snaps, while a neck injury that ended his 2025 season after Week 12 adds uncertainty.
Value vs ADP-1 slots (reach)
Our rank
RB52
vs
Market ADP
RB51
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
RB52 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
Source agreement
±72 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-28 backs most similar to Justice Hill's 2025 season, 2 finished RB2, 2 finished RB3, 5 finished RB4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

20%20%50%
  • RB220%(2)
  • RB320%(2)
  • RB4+50%(5)
  • Missed season9%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range4.8 median
0.8p25–p75 3.8–9.912.6
10 most similar players
Giovani Bernard91%
2020·RB32 · 9.9 PPG
Jerick McKinnon87%
2022·RB19 · 10.5 PPG
Ameer Abdullah86%
2022·RB72 · 4.2 PPG
Samaje Perine86%
2025·RB57 · 5.2 PPG
Boston Scott79%
2022·RB65 · 4.1 PPG
Jonathan Williams78%
2022·RB94 · 3.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Solid usage productionSolid carry shareAge 28 · veteranTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↑ 40 pts above market
Our view
44
Market
4
TD rebound upside

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (6 flags)

Risk Flags

4
  • Age Concerns

    Hill is 28 and at/past the typical RB value cliff; even in a stable pass-down role, dynasty appreciation is gone and depreciation accelerates from here.

  • Contract Situation

    Named a PFF cut candidate on a cheap, near-expiring deal; releasing him saves money and opens a backfield spot, making his 2026 roster status genuinely uncertain.

  • Target Competition

    Capped behind workhorse Derrick Henry and now contesting passing-down/change-of-pace snaps with rookie Adam Randall (R5), Rasheen Ali, and RFA Keaton Mitchell.

  • Injury Concerns

    Placed on IR with a neck injury that ended his 2025 season after Week 12; neck issues carry recurrence/recovery uncertainty heading into a new staff's evaluation.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Usage & Volume

    If 31-year-old Derrick Henry misses time, Hill is the proven, in-house pass-game back who would absorb the highest-leverage touches and spike to flex value in PPR.

  • Offensive Context

    Caught 21 of 27 targets in just 10 games in 2025; the receiving role gives him a non-zero PPR floor and standalone value if the new staff keeps a defined third-down back.

Format Comparison

Justice Hill — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest671—
PPR SF540-131