Justice Hill

RB · #91

BAL · RB · Age 28

FLEX

Justice Hill's recent trend in add transactions signals growing interest, but his trailing average PPR points of just 3.0 over the last four games indicate limited upside.

Role & volume

Over the past four games, Justice Hill has averaged a modest snap share of 25.8%, with a carry share that fluctuates between 0% and 3.2%. This suggests he is not consistently seeing significant rushing volume.

Projected role

Looking ahead to the season, Hill's recent trend in add transactions does hint at potential for increased usage, but his current role remains unclear with no substantial changes or improvements noted in recent games.

Range (floor–ceiling)

Given his trailing average of 3.0 PPR points and the lack of a clear uptick in volume or role, Hill's ceiling is limited to that of an occasional flex play with a floor around replacement level.

Intel may be outdated · updated 47 days ago

Current statusBAL

Our read vs. the market

Beta

Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line

Why

Solid usage productionSolid carry shareAge 28 · veteranTDs due to rebound

Our view vs Market↑ 40 pts above market

Our view

Market

TD rebound upside

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (3 flags)

Risk Flags

Usage & Volume
Season-long target share has trended downward with a low WOPR, and Baltimore used a 2026 draft pick plus Rasheen Ali on the same depth chart, threatening the passing-down role Hill's value depends on.
Injury Concerns
A neck injury ended his 2025 season early after missing time to concussion/illness in 2024; reports have him healthy and participating this offseason, but the recurring pattern is a durability flag for a player already fighting for touches.

Opportunity Flags

Passing-Down Role
As the clearest passing-down complement to Derrick Henry, Hill would see an immediate receiving-work bump if Henry missed time, though early-down carries would likely still split toward the younger backs.

Format Comparison

Justice Hill — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR 1QBBest	675	—
PPR SF	544	-131