Justice Hill

RB age 28 — entering/past typical value cliff

Hill sits third on the Ravens depth chart behind Derrick Henry (3822 value) and Keaton Mitchell (2224 value). His path to meaningful touches requires multiple injuries above him, and even then he faces competition from Rasheen Ali.

Justice Hill suffered a neck injury with coach John Harbaugh stating he will be out three to four weeks. Hill was placed on injured reserve mid-season and his long-term recovery status heading into 2026 offseason remains unclear.

Henry, Hill and Ali are all under contract for 2026, and Mitchell is set to be a restricted free agent. Keaton Mitchell has been getting the backup carries with 39 for 295 yards, while Rasheen Ali has also been getting more playing time. Hill has lost snaps in the rotation.

Hill's snap share dropped significantly before injury, with Keaton Mitchell taking 39 carries for 295 yards as backup and Rasheen Ali gaining more playing time. His third-down role is being eroded.

Derrick Henry logged 300+ carries for the third straight season in 2025, remaining the unquestioned workhorse. Hill's snap share declined to ~25% in-season even before the offseason; his ceiling as a complementary pass-down back is structurally capped while Henry is healthy.

Some stats suggest Derrick Henry is slowing down a bit at 32 years old, and he is getting to the age where carrying the ball more than 300 times per season will not be sustainable. If Henry misses time, Hill could inherit significant volume as the veteran pass-catcher.

Key update since prior analysis: Keaton Mitchell (value: 1920) signed a 2-year, $9.25M deal with the Los Angeles Chargers after Baltimore declined to tender him as a restricted free agent. Hill is now the unambiguous RB2 and sole Henry handcuff — the mitchell_trade_possibility scenario materialized as a free agency departure, directly elevating Hill's roster security.

Henry enters age 32 on the back of three straight 300+ carry seasons — the exact usage profile that precedes historical RB breakdowns. Any significant Henry absence would vault Hill into a featured role in one of the NFL's top offenses, with Lamar Jackson and elite weapons around him.

The Baltimore Ravens received trade interest for Keaton Mitchell, which could open snaps for Hill if Mitchell is traded away before the 2026 season.

Keaton Mitchell's trade or departure would elevate Hill to clear RB2 and increase his target and touch floor materially. Mitchell's value (2224) reflects real interest from outside teams, making this a live catalyst.

Derrick Henry signed a 2-year, $30M extension in May 2025 keeping him under contract through 2027, but at 32 years old any injury could open significant volume. However, Mitchell would likely be primary beneficiary over Hill.