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Joshua Palmer headshot

Joshua Palmer

WR · #137

BUF · WR · Age 26

Redraft rank
WR130
◆WR130 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#316
ADP
WR100
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP-30 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR130
vs
Market ADP
WR100
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR130 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR100 ADP · -30 slots
Major
−
Source agreement
±55 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-26 receivers most similar to Joshua Palmer's 2025 season, 1 finished WR3, 6 finished WR4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

60%30%
  • WR310%(1)
  • WR4+60%(6)
  • Missed season30%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
70%hang on~8.7 PPG·30%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–8.912.8
10 most similar players
Michael Gallup95%
2022·WR59 · 7.6 PPG
James Washington92%
2022·Missed the season
Laquon Treadwell92%
2022·Missed the season
Jalen Tolbert91%
2024·WR46 · 8.9 PPG
Marquise Brown91%
2025·WR50 · 8.6 PPG
Allen Lazard90%
2022·WR38 · 11.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Joshua Palmer's dynasty outlook is poor and has deteriorated further with Buffalo's offseason: the Bills traded for D.J. Moore as their new WR1, continue to back third-year Keon Coleman, retained Khalil Shakir, and added rookie Skyler Bell (R4), leaving Palmer projecting as a WR4/5 with no clear path to volume. His 2025 was a disappointment (22-303-0 over 12 games) after signing to compete for a starting job, and recent reporting openly flags him as a cut candidate — though a ~$14.2M dead-cap charge likely keeps him rostered through 2026 as a buried depth piece. The only realistic equity is contingency value: an injury in front of him in an elite Josh Allen offense could create startable weeks, and he is the most proven veteran among the backups. With a ~$4.8M-to-cut window opening in 2027, his roster security is short-lived. Recommendation: SELL into any remaining name-value or roster-spot demand now; if no buyer exists, treat as a low-priority HOLD/stash dart, not an asset to acquire — over a next-season horizon.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Average usage productionSolid target shareAge 26 · ascendingTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↑ 16 pts above market
Our view
41
Market
25
Long career runwayTD regression risk

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Contract Situation2

    Palmer carries an $11.85M cap hit in 2026 after a disappointing first Bills season (22 rec, 303 yds before ankle/knee IR). He is widely cited as a potential cap casualty; a release would destroy his dynasty value immediately.

  • Target Volume2

    Palmer sits behind Khalil Shakir in the pecking order and competes with Keon Coleman, Tyrell Shavers, and Brandin Cooks. With only 22 receptions in 12 games (1.8 per game), he's clearly the WR4/5 in this offense.

  • Injury Concerns

    Palmer missed 5 games during 2025 regular season with knee/ankle injuries and ended the season on IR, continuing a three-year pattern of missing 10 games total due to injury. His durability is a major concern at age 26.

  • Roster Construction

    The Bills' trade for D.J. Moore from Chicago — not yet reflected in the structured teammate data — is the single biggest development here. Moore immediately slots as WR2 behind Shakir, eliminating Palmer's only viable path to volume and rendering his 3yr/$36M contract a cap liability.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Roster Churn2

    Keon Coleman's roster status is listed as uncertain and he is a reported trade candidate. His departure would open the outside WR3 role and a meaningful target share boost for Palmer if he survives the roster.

  • Target Vacancies

    If Buffalo experiences WR injuries or trades a veteran pass-catcher, Palmer could see meaningful volume increase as a capable reserve option.

  • Roster Churn Upside

    Buffalo may move on from Curtis Samuel and is expected to add a starting WR this offseason, but Palmer's injury history and high cap hit make it unclear if he'll benefit. Any turnover could open opportunities if he stays healthy.

  • Injury Replacement

    Any injury to Shakir or DJ Moore in a Josh Allen-led offense immediately vaults Palmer into WR2 volume. Allen's elite QB value makes any starter-level role on this offense fantasy-relevant.

  • Veteran Volatility

    Josh Allen's elite volume means any injury to Moore or Coleman cascades meaningful opportunity downward. If Palmer survives the 53-man, he is one injury away from 6-8 targets per week in a top-3 NFL offense.

Format Comparison

Joshua Palmer — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest623—
PPR SF511-112