Josh Oliver

MIN · TE · Age 26

Redraft rank

TE58

TE58 · DepthROS TE56

Tier

Overall

#301

ADP

—

Consensus

Coin flip

Value vs ADP

No redraft ADP yet — too early in draft season, or outside ADP coverage.

What’s driving the season rank

Case against

Projection rank

TE58 · proj. consensus

Notable

Source agreement

±37 rank σ · 2 sources

Notable

Neutral: ADP value, Age / role

What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-24 tight ends most similar to Josh Oliver's 2021 season, 2 finished TE3, 5 finished TE4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

20%50%31%

TE320%(2)
TE4+50%(5)
Missed season31%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range2.6 median

0.0p25–p75 0.0–4.54.9

10 most similar players

Kahale Warring95%

2021Missed the season

Juwan Johnson93%

2021TE46 · 4.4 PPG

Pharaoh Brown92%

2021TE59 · 3.2 PPG

Devin Asiasi91%

2021Missed the season

Nick Vannett91%

2018TE30 · 4.7 PPG

Jace Sternberger90%

2021Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Josh Oliver remains a run-blocking-oriented TE2 in Minnesota behind T.J. Hockenson, with recent game logs showing declining snap share (62% to 46% over his last four outings) even as his target share ticked up modestly — a profile that caps his weekly fantasy floor. A three-year extension signed with the Vikings in 2026 secures his roster spot and role through 2028, and he has shown he can convert limited opportunities efficiently, tying for the team receiving-touchdown lead in 2025 with an elite catch-rate profile on his targets. Net-net, this is a hold: Oliver offers streaming-TE-with-touchdown-spike value in deep or TE-premium formats but lacks a standalone path to weekly relevance absent an injury to Hockenson, so he's not a buy target and isn't worth selling into weak return either over a 1-2 year window.

Intel may be outdated · updated 11 days ago

Current statusMIN

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

Usage & Volume
Oliver's snap share fell from the low-60s to the mid-40s across his last four appearances while target share stayed in single-to-low-double digits, reflecting a blocking-first TE2 role with a thin weekly fantasy floor behind an entrenched starter.
Depth Chart Crowding
T.J. Hockenson holds the clear TE1 role, and Minnesota added TE depth (Ben Yurosek, Gavin Bartholomew, plus a 2026 fifth-round pick in Max Bredeson), leaving Oliver's already-limited receiving share vulnerable to further dilution over time.

Opportunity Flags

Contract Situation
Oliver signed a three-year extension with the Vikings in 2026, locking in his roster spot and blocking-TE2 role through the 2028 season and removing camp-competition or roster-cut risk as a variable.
Backup Value
Oliver has started games in place of Hockenson before, and given Hockenson's injury history and reduced 2025 snap share, any Hockenson absence would likely push Oliver into a starting role with meaningfully expanded routes and red-zone work.
Elite Production
Despite minimal volume, Oliver tied for the team receiving-touchdown lead in 2025 and posted an elite passer rating when targeted, showing he converts his limited opportunities efficiently rather than needing high target share to produce.

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Josh Oliver

MIN · TE · Age 26

Redraft rank

TE58

TE58 · DepthROS TE56

Tier

Overall

#301

ADP

—

Consensus

Coin flip

Value vs ADP

No redraft ADP yet — too early in draft season, or outside ADP coverage.

What’s driving the season rank

Case against

Projection rank

TE58 · proj. consensus

Notable

Source agreement

±37 rank σ · 2 sources

Notable

Neutral: ADP value, Age / role

What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-24 tight ends most similar to Josh Oliver's 2021 season, 2 finished TE3, 5 finished TE4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

20%50%31%

TE320%(2)
TE4+50%(5)
Missed season31%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range2.6 median

0.0p25–p75 0.0–4.54.9

10 most similar players

Kahale Warring95%

2021Missed the season

Juwan Johnson93%

2021TE46 · 4.4 PPG

Pharaoh Brown92%

2021TE59 · 3.2 PPG

Devin Asiasi91%

2021Missed the season

Nick Vannett91%

2018TE30 · 4.7 PPG

Jace Sternberger90%

2021Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Intel may be outdated · updated 11 days ago

Current statusMIN

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

Usage & Volume
Oliver's snap share fell from the low-60s to the mid-40s across his last four appearances while target share stayed in single-to-low-double digits, reflecting a blocking-first TE2 role with a thin weekly fantasy floor behind an entrenched starter.
Depth Chart Crowding
T.J. Hockenson holds the clear TE1 role, and Minnesota added TE depth (Ben Yurosek, Gavin Bartholomew, plus a 2026 fifth-round pick in Max Bredeson), leaving Oliver's already-limited receiving share vulnerable to further dilution over time.

Opportunity Flags

Contract Situation
Oliver signed a three-year extension with the Vikings in 2026, locking in his roster spot and blocking-TE2 role through the 2028 season and removing camp-competition or roster-cut risk as a variable.
Backup Value
Oliver has started games in place of Hockenson before, and given Hockenson's injury history and reduced 2025 snap share, any Hockenson absence would likely push Oliver into a starting role with meaningfully expanded routes and red-zone work.
Elite Production
Despite minimal volume, Oliver tied for the team receiving-touchdown lead in 2025 and posted an elite passer rating when targeted, showing he converts his limited opportunities efficiently rather than needing high target share to produce.