Josh Allen
QB · #1BUF · QB · Age 30
Redraft rank
QB1
QB1 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#1
ADP
QB1
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
QB1
Market ADP
QB1
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rankMajorNotable
Case for
Projection rank
QB1 · proj. consensus
Source agreement
±0 rank σ · 2 sources
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence
Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
30%30%21%
- QB130%(3)
- QB230%(3)
- QB39%(1)
- QB4+11%(1)
- Missed season21%(2)
“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.
Next-season PPG range15.6 median
0.0p25–p75 8.7–18.720.4
10 most similar players
Tyrod Taylor96%
2018QB39 · 10.4 PPG
Patrick Mahomes95%
2024QB7 · 18.3 PPG
Marcus Mariota94%
2023Missed the season
Cam Newton93%
2019Missed the season
Lamar Jackson93%
2025QB21 · 16.5 PPG
Dak Prescott91%
2023QB3 · 20.8 PPG
+4 more analogs
Our read vs. the market
BetaNo call yetLow confidence
The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Format Comparison
Josh Allen — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR SFBest | 10,000 | — |
| PPR 1QB | 6,612 | -3,388 |