Josh Allen
QB · #1BUF · QB · Age 30
Redraft rank
QB1
QB1 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#1
ADP
QB1
Consensus
Tight
Josh Allen's 23% carry share in the 2025 season solidifies his status as a unique rushing threat among quarterbacks, setting him apart from replacement-level options.
Role & trajectory
Allen maintains a 100% snap share and faces no quarterback competition behind him, with the recent signing of D.J. Moore adding to his passing volume potential.
Projected outlook
As the QB1 on our value board, Allen's role is secure for the upcoming season, supported by a strong offensive supporting cast and a long-term contract that locks in his situation.
Risk & schedule
A potential touchdown regression due to scoring five touchdowns above expectation last year could trim his fantasy ceiling, alongside concerns about aging rushing volume as he approaches 30.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
QB1
Market ADP
QB1
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rankMajorNotable
Case for
Projection rank
QB1 · proj. consensus
Source agreement
±0 rank σ · 2 sources
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence
Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
30%30%21%
- QB130%(3)
- QB230%(3)
- QB39%(1)
- QB4+11%(1)
- Missed season21%(2)
“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.
Next-season PPG range15.6 median
0.0p25–p75 8.7–18.720.4
10 most similar players
Tyrod Taylor96%
2018QB39 · 10.4 PPG
Patrick Mahomes95%
2024QB7 · 18.3 PPG
Marcus Mariota94%
2023Missed the season
Cam Newton93%
2019Missed the season
Lamar Jackson93%
2025QB21 · 16.5 PPG
Dak Prescott91%
2023QB3 · 20.8 PPG
+4 more analogs
Our read vs. the market
BetaNo call yetLow confidence
The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Format Comparison
Josh Allen — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR SFBest | 10,000 | — |
| PPR 1QB | 6,612 | -3,388 |