Risk Flags
1- Age Concerns
RB age 27 — entering/past typical value cliff
Jonathan Taylor
RB · #8IND · RB · Age 27
Redraft rank
RB4
RB4 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#20
ADP
RB4
Consensus
Coin flip
Jonathan Taylor delivered an RB4 season in 2025 with league-leading 323 carries, but the Colts aim to reduce his workload entering a contract year.
Role & trajectory
Taylor's role remains dominant as he secured 78% of backfield carries and 83% of snaps in 2025, though recent team comments suggest a planned reduction in volume.
Projected outlook
Despite the workload concerns, Taylor is still projected to maintain elite rushing volume for an RB, with his current contract year potentially driving trade interest and value.
Risk & schedule
The primary risk is a reduction in carries as the Colts look to lighten Taylor's load, along with potential holdout risks if his contract negotiations do not progress smoothly.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
RB4
Market ADP
RB4
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rankMajorNotable
Case for
Projection rank
RB4 · proj. consensus
Case against
Source agreement
±9 rank σ · 2 sources
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence
Of the 10 age-27 backs most similar to Jonathan Taylor's 2025 season, 1 finished RB1, 6 finished RB2, 2 finished RB3, 1 finished RB4+.
Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
60%20%
- RB110%(1)
- RB260%(6)
- RB320%(2)
- RB4+10%(1)
Next-season PPG range12.4 median
8.6p25–p75 11.5–14.219.2
10 most similar players
Chuba Hubbard91%
2025RB32 · 9.1 PPG
D'Andre Swift87%
2025RB12 · 14.1 PPG
Josh Jacobs87%
2025RB15 · 15.2 PPG
Derrick Henry85%
2021RB18 · 22.8 PPG
Rachaad White85%
2024RB21 · 12.7 PPG
Ezekiel Elliott84%
2022RB21 · 11.5 PPG
+4 more analogs
Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Our read vs. the market
BetaFairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionElite carry shareAge 27 · peak windowTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↓ 2 pts below market
Our view
90
Market
92
TD rebound upsideElite carry shareProducing above value
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (1 flags)
Format Comparison
Jonathan Taylor — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 6,184 | — |
| PPR SF | 5,263 | -921 |