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Joe Milton headshot

Joe Milton

QB · #48

DAL · QB · Age 26

Redraft rank
QB61
•QB61 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#526
ADP
—
Consensus
Tight

Joe Milton's 2025 season saw only four mop-up appearances with Dallas, limiting his fantasy relevance in 2026.

Role & trajectory
Milton enters the offseason as Dallas' developmental QB behind Dak Prescott and now faces competition from newly-signed Sam Howell for the backup role.
Projected outlook
With a limited path to meaningful snaps in 2026, Milton's fantasy value is tied to external factors like a trade or an injury to Dak Prescott.
Risk & schedule
Milton risks losing the backup job to Sam Howell, who has more career starts and could push him off the roster entirely. Additionally, he ranks as QB60 on our value board, indicating a low floor for dynasty purposes.
Value vs ADP

No redraft ADP yet — too early in draft season, or outside ADP coverage.

What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
QB61 · proj. consensus
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Source agreement, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-25 quarterbacks most similar to Joe Milton's 2025 season, 1 finished QB1, 1 finished QB2, 1 finished QB3, 4 finished QB4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

40%30%
  • QB110%(1)
  • QB210%(1)
  • QB310%(1)
  • QB4+40%(4)
  • Missed season30%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
70%hang on~12.1 PPG·30%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–13.118.7
10 most similar players
Taylor Heinicke100%
2019·Missed the season
Nick Mullens99%
2021·Missed the season
Tim Boyle97%
2021·QB48 · 6.1 PPG
Kenny Pickett97%
2025·QB54 · 1.3 PPG
Gardner Minshew97%
2023·QB21 · 12.3 PPG
PJ Walker96%
2022·QB44 · 6.5 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

3
  • QB Dependency

    Milton sits behind an entrenched Dak Prescott on the depth chart and saw only 4 mop-up appearances (2.6 PPG, PPR #55). With a healthy franchise QB ahead of him, there is no realistic path to fantasy-relevant volume in Dallas.

  • Roster Battle

    HC Brian Schottenheimer has confirmed an open QB2 competition with free-agent signing Sam Howell, whose ~18-20 career starts give him an experience edge. Losing the backup job would leave Milton a game-day inactive or off the roster entirely.

  • Contract Situation

    Multiple outlets (PFSN, SI) have named Milton the Cowboys' top trade candidate entering 2026, signaling the team may move on. A cut or low-value trade caps his already-thin dynasty floor.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Developmental Upside

    Milton retains elite arm talent and rushing ability (carry share up to 13%), the traits that earned a 5th-round trade from New England. He remains a cheap lottery ticket on a late-blooming starter outcome.

  • Trade Catalyst

    A trade to a QB-needy team — the most likely vehicle for any value spike — could hand Milton genuine competition for a starting job, the only scenario that materially lifts his tier-6 value.

Format Comparison

Joe Milton — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest639—
PPR 1QB516-123