Joe Milton

QB · #48

DAL · QB · Age 26

Redraft rank

QB61

QB61 · Depth

Tier

Overall

#526

ADP

—

Consensus

Tight

Value vs ADP

No redraft ADP yet — too early in draft season, or outside ADP coverage.

What’s driving the season rank

Case against

Projection rank

QB61 · proj. consensus

Notable

Neutral: ADP value, Source agreement, Age / role

What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-25 quarterbacks most similar to Joe Milton's 2025 season, 1 finished QB1, 1 finished QB2, 1 finished QB3, 4 finished QB4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

40%30%

QB110%(1)
QB210%(1)
QB310%(1)
QB4+40%(4)
Missed season30%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip

70%hang on~12.1 PPG30%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range

0.0p25–p75 0.0–13.118.7

10 most similar players

Taylor Heinicke100%

2019Missed the season

Nick Mullens99%

2021Missed the season

Tim Boyle97%

2021QB48 · 6.1 PPG

Kenny Pickett97%

2025QB54 · 1.3 PPG

Gardner Minshew97%

2023QB21 · 12.3 PPG

PJ Walker96%

2022QB44 · 6.5 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Joe Milton enters 2026 as Dallas' developmental QB, stuck behind a healthy, entrenched Dak Prescott and now fighting newly-signed Sam Howell for the QB2 job in a coach-confirmed camp battle. His 2025 line (4 GP, 2.6 PPG, PPR #55, all mop-up duty) reflects a player with no current path to fantasy volume, and beat writers at PFSN and SI have tabbed him the Cowboys' top trade candidate. The only realistic value catalysts are external — a trade to a QB-needy team or a Prescott injury — both of which are outside his control and not the base case. Athletic arm talent and rushing flashes keep him a viable deep-bench lottery ticket in superflex, but the floor is a roster cut. Recommendation: hold if already rostered as a cheap superflex stash; otherwise a sell into any camp/preseason hype, with a 1-2 year horizon for the speculative upside to resolve.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

QB Dependency
Milton sits behind an entrenched Dak Prescott on the depth chart and saw only 4 mop-up appearances (2.6 PPG, PPR #55). With a healthy franchise QB ahead of him, there is no realistic path to fantasy-relevant volume in Dallas.
Roster Battle
HC Brian Schottenheimer has confirmed an open QB2 competition with free-agent signing Sam Howell, whose ~18-20 career starts give him an experience edge. Losing the backup job would leave Milton a game-day inactive or off the roster entirely.
Contract Situation
Multiple outlets (PFSN, SI) have named Milton the Cowboys' top trade candidate entering 2026, signaling the team may move on. A cut or low-value trade caps his already-thin dynasty floor.

Opportunity Flags

Developmental Upside
Milton retains elite arm talent and rushing ability (carry share up to 13%), the traits that earned a 5th-round trade from New England. He remains a cheap lottery ticket on a late-blooming starter outcome.
Trade Catalyst
A trade to a QB-needy team — the most likely vehicle for any value spike — could hand Milton genuine competition for a starting job, the only scenario that materially lifts his tier-6 value.

Format Comparison

Joe Milton — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR SFBest	639	—
PPR 1QB	516	-123

Format

Value

vs Best

PPR SFBest

639

—

PPR 1QB

516

-123