Jaylen Warren

At 27.2 years old, Warren is entering the steep decline phase for RBs. He averaged just 4.5 YPC in 2025 after being named the starter, suggesting efficiency erosion has already begun.

Despite 211 carries in 2025, Warren shares touches with Gainwell and rookie Kaleb Johnson. Dulac reports team plans to phase Warren out by 2026 in favor of Johnson, limiting long-term volume security.

Warren is under contract through 2027, but team insiders indicate he'll likely be released after 2025 season to make room for Johnson. May become unrestricted FA in 2026, weakening leverage and landing spot uncertainty.

Kenneth Gainwell is an unrestricted free agent who outproduced Warren in Week 18 and is reportedly seeking $6M annually. Pittsburgh insider Gerry Dulac questioned whether the team will commit $11M+ to two RBs, suggesting one may depart.

Pittsburgh signed Rico Dowdle (2yr/$12.25M) in free agency — back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, reuniting with new HC Mike McCarthy who coached him in Dallas. Dowdle is projected as the 1A entering training camp, directly displacing Warren from the lead role he held in 2025.

Rico Dowdle signed a 2yr/$12.25M deal (March 2026) to be Pittsburgh's power runner, with Warren explicitly repositioned as the passing-down and change-of-pace back. Carry share compression is baked into the team's stated plan — note also that Kenneth Gainwell departed for Tampa Bay, so the structured teammate data carries a lag.

Warren delivered RB2 production in 2025 as lead back (211 carries, 958 yards, 6 TDs) while also handling 45 targets. Proved capable of handling featured workload if Johnson doesn't usurp role faster than expected.

With Gainwell gone and Kaleb Johnson a proven non-factor (51 offensive snaps in 2025), Warren is the unambiguous next man up if Dowdle misses time. Any Dowdle injury instantly restores Warren to feature-back volume and top-24 dynasty relevance.

45 targets in 16 games (2.8 per game) shows PPR stability. Elite efficiency at 7.0 yards per reception. If Gainwell fades, Warren could see more passing-game work to maintain floor value.

If Gainwell walks in free agency (highly likely given his reported market value), Warren becomes the clear RB1 with potential for 250+ touches in 2026. This would stabilize his floor even as efficiency declines.

McCarthy's West Coast system is historically excellent for pass-catching backs, and Warren's 2025 receiving line (40 rec/333 yds/2 TDs on a lean 89% catch rate) fits the mold precisely. Pro Football Network identified Warren as a 'dynasty winner' under McCarthy in February 2026 — the scheme could prop up his PPR floor even as a 1B.

RBs carry inherently high injury risk; if Dowdle misses time, Warren steps immediately into one of the better offensive environments of his career — McCarthy's system, DK Metcalf drawing coverage, and a proven RB1 track record from 2025. The floor-to-ceiling flip is significant.