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Jaylen Waddle headshot

Jaylen Waddle

WR · #24

DEN · WR · Age 27

▲START

Jaylen Waddle's elite rushing volume and high target share with Miami project him to maintain a star-level role on Denver, despite the team change.

Role & volume
Waddle averaged a 21.1% target share over his last four games in Miami, indicating he was a key part of their passing game.
Projected role
Given Waddle's history as a high-volume receiver and runner, his new team Denver is likely to utilize him similarly, keeping him in the WR21 range on our value board.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Waddle's recent injury concerns lower his floor slightly but his elite rushing volume and high target share ceiling ensure he remains a reliable weekly starter.
Intel may be outdated · updated 6 days ago
Current statusDEN
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Strong usage productionElite target shareAge 27 · peak windowTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↓ 1 pts below market
Our view
81
Market
82
High draft pedigreeElite target shareTD rebound upside

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Usage & Volume

    Snap share and target share fell sharply over the final stretch of the 2025 season (84%→71%→25% snaps across the last three games), a pattern that needs to be re-confirmed rather than assumed away now that the offensive context has changed.

  • Offensive Context

    Coaching commentary points to a distributed passing attack rather than a single clear alpha, with Sutton, Mims, and Franklin all drawing meaningful snaps — a WR1 depth-chart tag does not guarantee bell-cow target volume in that structure.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Target Volume

    A 26% target share, 47% air-yards share, and 0.71 WOPR are top-tier opportunity indicators that traveled with him into the new offense, the stickiest volume signal for translating to fantasy production.

  • Elite Production

    A 13.1 aDOT and 28% deep-target rate give him a downfield-weighted role with real spike-week upside beyond his weekly floor.

Format Comparison

Jaylen Waddle — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest4,546—
PPR SF3,897-649