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Jayden Daniels headshot

Jayden Daniels

QB · #5

WAS · QB · Age 25

Redraft rank
QB4
▲QB4 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#8
ADP
QB6
Consensus
Some split

Jayden Daniels' 25% carry share in his injury-shortened 2025 season signals elite rushing volume for a quarterback, making him a unique fantasy asset.

Role & trajectory
Daniels enters the 2026 season as Washington's undisputed franchise quarterback with a 25% carry share in his last healthy season, indicating he remains a rushing threat despite recent injuries.
Projected outlook
With no direct competition for the starting job and a full recovery from his elbow injury confirmed, Daniels is projected to maintain his role as Washington's primary quarterback and rushing option.
Risk & schedule
Three separate injuries in 2025 raise durability concerns, especially given the risk of further damage for a quarterback who relies on designed rushes. Additionally, a rookie offensive coordinator may alter Daniels' role and reduce his designed rushing volume.
Value vs ADP+2 slots of value
Our rank
QB4
vs
Market ADP
QB6
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
QB4 · proj. consensus
Major
+
ADP value
QB6 ADP · +2 slots
Minor
+
Source agreement
±5 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 quarterbacks most similar to Jayden Daniels, 2 finished QB1, 4 finished QB2, 2 finished QB3, 1 finished QB4+, 1 was off fantasy rosters.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Off rosters → QB1 — directional, not a forecast.

23%41%24%
  • QB123%(2)
  • QB241%(4)
  • QB324%(2)
  • QB4+6%(1)
  • Off rosters6%(1)
Year-two PPG range13.9 median
3.6p25–p75 9.5–17.219.2
10 most similar players
Joe Burrow98%
2023·QB21 · 14.7 PPG
Mac Jones78%
2023·QB27 · 9.7 PPG
Tua Tagovailoa74%
2023·QB11 · 15.8 PPG
Justin Fields68%
2023·QB16 · 17.7 PPG
Jalen Hurts66%
2023·QB4 · 20.6 PPG
Kenny Pickett65%
2023·QB26 · 9.2 PPG

+4 more analogs

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Injury History

    Daniels missed 10 games across 2025 to three distinct injuries — knee, hamstring, and a dislocated elbow that eventually shut his season down early — and his game remains built on heavy scramble/carry usage (12-17% carry share), so the injury exposure is systemic to his style, not a one-off fluke.

  • Scheme Fit

    New OC David Blough is installing a more under-center, West Coast-influenced scheme (Washington ran only 112 under-center snaps league-worst in 2025) designed to protect Daniels via play-action, but Daniels himself says he's 'still got a long way to go' learning it, leaving real installation risk into Week 1.

Opportunity Flags

3
  • Healthy Bounce-Back

    GM Adam Peters says Daniels had an 'incredible' offseason in LA and is trending fully healthy into camp; in his last clean pre-injury stretch (Weeks 6-7) he posted 21.6 and 17.7 fantasy points on 100% and 69% snaps, showing the weekly ceiling of a locked-in, every-down role when available.

  • Supporting Cast

    Terry McLaurin is projected healthy and available from Week 1 after an injury-disrupted 2025 connection, restoring Daniels a true WR1 alongside Antonio Williams as a solid complementary starter.

  • Elite Comp Trajectory

    Daniels' draft-capital and rookie-usage profile is a 98.1% statistical match to Joe Burrow, whose own recovery from a similarly injury-marred early stretch trended toward perennial top-5 dynasty QB1 standing — supporting a real multi-year ceiling case if health holds.

Format Comparison

Jayden Daniels — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest7,505—
PPR 1QB4,867-2,638