Opportunity Flags
1- Youth Upside
Young QB (23) — still in value appreciation phase
Jaxson Dart
QB · #10NYG · QB · Age 23
Redraft rank
QB7
QB7 · Every-week starter
Tier
T1
Overall
#13
ADP
QB7
Consensus
Tight
Jaxson Dart's rookie season included a league-leading 24 total touchdowns, making him a standout among his draft class.
Role & trajectory
Dart enters Year 2 as the Giants' unquestioned franchise QB with a stable multi-year runway and no quarterback competition, but his carry share is drifting down from 17% to 16%, indicating potential rushing volume risk.
Projected outlook
With a new veteran staff focused on accelerating Dart's development and reinforcements added to the roster, he projects as a QB with room for growth in passing volume, aiming to offset any regression in rushing touchdowns.
Risk & schedule
Dart's 9 rushing TDs came against only 4.6 expected (+4.4 over expected), and his reckless running style leaves a real recurrence risk for concussions or injuries, which could impact his fantasy value if not managed.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
QB7
Market ADP
QB7
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rankNotableNotableMinor
Case for
Projection rank
QB7 · proj. consensus
Source agreement
±1 rank σ · 2 sources
Age / role
age 23 QB
Neutral: ADP value
What similar players becameMedium confidence
Of the 10 age-22 quarterbacks most similar to Jaxson Dart's 2025 season, 5 finished QB1, 5 finished QB3.
Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
52%48%
- QB152%(5)
- QB348%(5)
Next-season PPG range17.7 median
10.3p25–p75 13.4–20.123.8
10 most similar players
Justin Fields95%
2022QB10 · 19.7 PPG
Drake Maye84%
2025QB1 · 19.9 PPG
Daniel Jones80%
2020QB25 · 12.9 PPG
Kyler Murray71%
2020QB5 · 23.7 PPG
Sam Darnold71%
2019QB26 · 14.6 PPG
Caleb Williams70%
2025QB5 · 18.8 PPG
+4 more analogs
Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Our read vs. the market
BetaNo call yetLow confidence
The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (1 flags)
Format Comparison
Jaxson Dart — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR SFBest | 5,838 | — |
| PPR 1QB | 3,432 | -2,406 |