Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · #2

SEA · WR · Age 24

Redraft rank

WR3

WR3 · Elite start

Tier

Overall

#12

ADP

WR3

Consensus

Coin flip

Value vs ADPat market

Our rank

WR3

Market ADP

WR3

Priced right where they project.

What’s driving the season rank

Case for

Projection rank

WR3 · proj. consensus

Major

Age / role

age 24 WR

Minor

Case against

Source agreement

±9 rank σ · 2 sources

Notable

Neutral: ADP value

What similar players becameLow confidence

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → WR1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

30%30%30%

WR130%(3)
WR230%(3)
WR4+30%(3)
Missed season10%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range13.9 median

3.6p25–p75 9.6–16.821.8

10 most similar players

Marquise Brown90%

2021WR24 · 14.1 PPG

Drake London90%

2025WR21 · 16.8 PPG

Ja'Marr Chase89%

2024WR1 · 23.7 PPG

Allen Robinson88%

2019WR12 · 15.9 PPG

Brian Thomas Jr.88%

2025WR44 · 9.9 PPG

Courtland Sutton88%

2020Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Our read vs. the market

Beta

Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line

Why

Elite usage productionElite target shareAge 24 · ascendingTDs due to rebound

Our view vs Market↑ 1 pts above market

Our view

100

Market

Elite target shareTD rebound upsideProducing above value

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Format Comparison