Risk Flags
7- Injury Concerns
Williams suffered an ACL tear in October 2024 and is unlikely to be fully available until mid-to-late 2025 season. ACL recovery for RBs typically takes 12+ months, creating significant uncertainty for the 2025 campaign.
- Free Agency Uncertainty
On unrestricted free agent market at age 25.8 with shoulder injury questions. Cowboys have interest but one-year/$3M deal structure indicates non-franchise commitment. Could land elsewhere or get squeezed out by younger draft picks (Blue, Mafah).
- Contract Situation
Williams is an unrestricted free agent with contract negotiations on hold until he hires an agent. Cowboys have expressed interest in a multi-year deal, but salary cap constraints ($48M over cap) and competition from other teams create significant landing spot uncertainty.
- Age Concerns
RB age 26 — entering/past typical value cliff
- Youth Competition
2025 draft picks Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah are now listed ahead of Williams on depth chart. If Williams departs Dallas, his role/destination uncertain with multiple teams possessing younger RB depth.
- Depth Chart
Rookie Jaydon Blue (2091 value) performed well in the Week 18 finale and could push for touches if Williams returns to Dallas. Phil Mafah also showed promise, creating potential committee risk even if Williams re-signs.
- Usage & Volume
Carry share (-30%), snap share (-27%), and target share (-6%) all trended sharply downward over the final weeks of 2025 — a pattern consistent with playing through a shoulder injury. While injury-driven rather than scheme-driven, it creates uncertainty around his early-2026 health status.