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Jared Goff headshot

Jared Goff

QB · #19

DET · QB · Age 31

Redraft rank
QB16
•QB16 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#28
ADP
QB16
Consensus
Coin flip

Jared Goff's 2nd-place finish in passing touchdowns (34) and his 2.57-second release time, the fastest among NFL QBs, signal he remains a high-floor starter despite entering his late prime.

Role & trajectory
Goff's carry share of 4.4% indicates no rushing production, capping his weekly ceiling relative to mobile QBs but maintaining him as the primary fantasy asset for Detroit.
Projected outlook
With all top weapons locked in through at least 2027 and a restructured contract freeing up cap space for defensive upgrades, Goff's fantasy ceiling remains intact despite OC changes.
Risk & schedule
At 31.3 years old with shoulder durability concerns and an interior OL that took 38 sacks in 2025, Goff faces declining production risk as his elite window narrows.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
QB16
vs
Market ADP
QB16
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
QB16 · proj. consensus
Notable
Case against
−
Source agreement
±13 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-31 quarterbacks most similar to Jared Goff's 2025 season, 2 finished QB1, 2 finished QB2, 1 finished QB3, 1 finished QB4+, 4 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

20%21%40%
  • QB120%(2)
  • QB221%(2)
  • QB310%(1)
  • QB4+10%(1)
  • Missed season40%(4)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
60%hang on~16.0 PPG·40%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–17.119.7
10 most similar players
Andy Dalton95%
2019·QB24 · 15.7 PPG
Matthew Stafford94%
2020·QB19 · 16.3 PPG
Dak Prescott94%
2025·QB7 · 18.5 PPG
Blaine Gabbert93%
2022·Missed the season
Trevor Siemian91%
2022·Missed the season
Carson Wentz89%
2023·Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns

    Goff took 38 sacks in 2025 (career high) with interior OL instability. Offensive line health is critical to his protection and fantasy output going forward.

  • Age Concerns

    At 31.3 years old, Goff is entering the declining phase for QB longevity. While still producing at a high level, his elite production window is narrowing and dynasty managers should prepare for gradual decline in 2-3 years.

  • Offensive Context

    Goff took 38 sacks in 2025 (career high) after Frank Ragnow's retirement created interior OL instability. His performance under pressure ranked just 21st among QBs, with completion percentage dropping to 50.8% when pressured versus 75.9% when clean.

  • Coaching Change

    Ben Johnson's departure to Chicago removes the offensive architect behind Goff's breakout years. New OC Drew Petzing's Arizona scheme was run-heavy with simpler, shorter pass concepts — a meaningful departure from Detroit's previous passing identity that introduces volume uncertainty.

  • Line Stability

    Taylor Decker was released and RT is now Larry Borom (unproven at starter level); LG Christian Mahogany carries fibula fracture and ACL tear history. Despite Penei Sewell anchoring the LT spot, the right side is a meaningful question mark heading into 2026.

  • Scheme Fit

    New OC Drew Petzing arrives from Arizona known for establishing the run and a balanced attack, which could trim Goff's pass volume versus the high-attempt Lions offenses that produced his QB6/QB9 finishes.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Offensive Context2

    Goff retains the most complete supporting cast in the NFC: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, and a maturing Jameson Williams. This top-3 weapons room is the single biggest floor-raiser for his dynasty value.

  • Offensive System

    Detroit's high-powered passing scheme under Ben Johnson continues to produce QB1 fantasy output. Goff has thrived in this system with elite weapons like Gibbs, Montgomery, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

  • Scheme Fit

    Petzing's offense emphasizes heavy personnel, under-center play action, and run game—a perfect fit for Goff's strengths. Petzing ranked 2nd in NFL in rushing average (4.92 YPC) in Arizona and developed Trey McBride into an elite TE, suggesting LaPorta could see increased usage.

  • Elite Production

    Goff has finished top-10 in QB scoring in each of the last four seasons and led all QBs with 101 TDs since 2023. His PPR rank of QB9 in 2025 (17.5 PPG) reflects a floor that is exceptional for a dynasty asset.

  • Job Security

    Detroit restructured his deal for 2026 cap space and he's under contract through 2028 with zero same-position competition on the roster or in the draft (only a R5 WR added), so his role is fully secure.

Format Comparison

Jared Goff — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest3,782—
PPR 1QB2,178-1,604