Risk Flags
3- TD Regression Risk
Williams scored 7 touchdowns against 4.2 expected in 2025 (+2.8), a finishing-luck gap that projects to normalize and could deflate his fantasy scoring even if his underlying role holds.
- Target Volume
Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the entrenched WR1, and Detroit's run-leaning offense (PROE -5%) caps the size of the passing-game pie, limiting how much target share Williams can realistically claim.
- Usage Volatility
His target share swung from 10% to 26% across his final four 2025 games, indicating a role that is still game-flow and matchup dependent week to week rather than a locked-in target floor.