Ja'Marr Chase
WR · #1CIN · WR · Age 26
Redraft rank
WR2
WR2 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#7
ADP
WR2
Consensus
Tight
Ja'Marr Chase led the NFL with 185 targets in 2025, commanding a 33% target share and 94% snap share, cementing his status as an elite WR starter.
Role & trajectory
Chase remains the unambiguous alpha of Cincinnati's passing game with a projected 30%+ target share in 2026, despite Tee Higgins being healthy and available. His role is secure as he leads the league in targets and air yards.
Projected outlook
Chase enters his age-26 season on a long-term deal with Joe Burrow reportedly healthy for 2026, positioning him to convert elite volume into overall-WR1 scoring. His WR4 floor is tied directly to Burrow's health.
Risk & schedule
The primary risk for Chase is the structural uncertainty around Joe Burrow's injury history, which could limit his weekly ceiling if Burrow misses time. This risk tightens the value curve but does not negate his elite start potential.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
WR2
Market ADP
WR2
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rankMajorNotable
Case for
Projection rank
WR2 · proj. consensus
Source agreement
±3 rank σ · 2 sources
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence
Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
30%20%20%30%
- WR130%(3)
- WR220%(2)
- WR320%(2)
- WR4+30%(3)
Next-season PPG range14.2 median
8.9p25–p75 11.9–16.821.1
10 most similar players
Michael Thomas90%
2019WR1 · 22.9 PPG
Garrett Wilson88%
2025WR66 · 14.2 PPG
Jarvis Landry88%
2019WR17 · 14.8 PPG
Jakobi Meyers88%
2023WR28 · 13.7 PPG
Diontae Johnson88%
2022WR33 · 10.6 PPG
Justin Jefferson88%
2025WR22 · 11.8 PPG
+4 more analogs
Our read vs. the market
BetaFairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionElite target shareAge 26 · ascending
Our view vs Market↓ 1 pts below market
Our view
99
Market
100
High draft pedigreeProducing above valueElite target share
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Format Comparison
Ja'Marr Chase — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 10,000 | — |
| PPR SF | 9,651 | -349 |