Jalen McMillan

WR · #60

TB · WR · Age 24

Redraft rank

WR62

WR62 · Depth

Tier

Overall

#171

ADP

WR62

Consensus

Coin flip

Jalen McMillan's small sample of four games in 2025 with a depressed target share of 2.8% and snap share of 51.5% highlights his limited role, despite potential upside from Mike Evans' departure.

Role & trajectory

McMillan enters the season as Tampa Bay's nominal WR3 with a target share that is rising but still modest at 2.8%, indicating he faces significant competition for targets behind Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin, with rookie Ted Hurst also in the mix.

Projected outlook

With Mike Evans leaving Tampa Bay, McMillan has a clear runway to absorb perimeter targets if Godwin's role declines due to age or injury, but his WR62 value rank suggests he is not yet a guaranteed starter despite the opportunity.

Risk & schedule

McMillan's serious neck injury in 2025 raises long-term durability concerns, and with rookie Ted Hurst added to an already competitive WR room, McMillan faces significant competition for a stable target share.

Value vs ADPat market

Our rank

WR62

Market ADP

WR62

Priced right where they project.

What’s driving the season rank

Case for

Age / role

age 24 WR

Minor

Case against

Projection rank

WR62 · proj. consensus

Notable

Source agreement

±13 rank σ · 2 sources

Notable

Neutral: ADP value

What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 receivers most similar to Jalen McMillan, 1 finished WR1, 1 finished WR2, 3 finished WR3, 5 finished WR4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast.

30%48%

WR112%(1)
WR210%(1)
WR330%(3)
WR4+48%(5)

Year-two PPG range11.4 median

5.9p25–p75 7.4–13.814.7

10 most similar players

Jahan Dotson88%

2023WR53 · 7.3 PPG

Brandon Aiyuk85%

2023WR10 · 14.7 PPG

Jayden Reed76%

2024WR30 · 11.4 PPG

Zay Flowers76%

2024WR29 · 12.3 PPG

Dontayvion Wicks74%

2024WR70 · 6.5 PPG

DeVonta Smith74%

2023WR17 · 14.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (3 flags)

Risk Flags

Injury Concerns
McMillan suffered three fractured vertebrae and two herniated discs in the 2025 preseason, limiting him to four games; he is reported fully healed and practicing in OTAs as of June 2026, but a serious neck injury raises long-term durability questions for a player with limited career snaps.
Target Volume
Ascending WR1 Emeka Egbuka and veteran Chris Godwin sit ahead of him, and Tampa spent a 2026 third-round pick on WR Ted Hurst plus added rookie Eric Rivers, compressing the path to a stable WR2 target share.

Opportunity Flags

Usage & Volume
Mike Evans signed with the 49ers, vacating a high-volume outside role; with Godwin aging and injury-prone, McMillan (age 24, healthy) has a clear runway to absorb perimeter targets and ascend to WR2 in Baker Mayfield's offense.

Format Comparison

Jalen McMillan — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR 1QBBest	1,833	—
PPR SF	1,562	-271

Format

Value

vs Best

PPR 1QBBest

1,833

—

PPR SF

1,562

-271