Jalen Hurts

Of the 10 age-27 quarterbacks most similar to Jalen Hurts's 2025 season, 4 finished QB1, 2 finished QB2, 3 finished QB4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

Hurts enters 2026 as Philadelphia's unchallenged every-down QB1 — 98-100% snaps late in 2025 including a Wild Card start, with only backups (McKee, Howell) and a Round 5 developmental rookie (Cole Payton) behind him — coming off a QB8 PPR season built on a 25:6 TD:INT ratio and 8 rushing TDs. The offseason reshaped his context: A.J. Brown was traded to New England, and the Eagles rebuilt the pass-catching corps around DeVonta Smith with first-round WR Makai Lemon, second-round TE Eli Stowers, and veterans Wicks, Hollywood Brown, and Elijah Moore, all under new coordinator Sean Mannion. The key catalysts are whether the Mannion transition fixes or extends 2025's career-low efficiency (7.1 YPA, 64.8% completion) and whether his shrinking rushing volume (105 carries, 421 yards) stabilizes, since that rushing TD equity underpins his fantasy ceiling. At 27 on a roster ESPN ranks No. 2 in the league, his floor is safe but his path back to overall-QB1 upside requires a passing-game rebound. Recommendation: HOLD as a top-tier dynasty QB asset through the 2026 season; if the market dips on the Brown trade or early Mannion growing pains, treat it as a buy-low window for contenders, and only sell if offered clear top-3 dynasty QB pricing.