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Jalen Hurts headshot

Jalen Hurts

QB · #9

PHI · QB · Age 27

Redraft rank
QB5
▲QB5 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#9
ADP
QB3
Consensus
Tight

Jalen Hurts' 25:6 TD:INT ratio in 2025 underscores his elite scoring efficiency, but a career-low passing efficiency (7.1 YPA) and the loss of A.J. Brown temper his upside.

Role & trajectory
Hurts played 98-100% snaps down the stretch in 2025, including a Wild Card start, with no real competition behind him.
Projected outlook
Philadelphia's offseason moves to bolster their receiving corps (WR Makai Lemon, TE Eli Stowers) could increase Hurts' passing volume and efficiency if he adapts well to Sean Mannion's system.
Risk & schedule
A.J. Brown's trade removes Hurts' top target, and his rushing volume (105 carries in 2025) has shown signs of decline, potentially tightening his workload and fantasy ceiling.
Value vs ADP-2 slots (reach)
Our rank
QB5
vs
Market ADP
QB3
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
QB5 · proj. consensus
Major
+
Source agreement
±2 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Case against
−
ADP value
QB3 ADP · -2 slots
Minor
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-27 quarterbacks most similar to Jalen Hurts's 2025 season, 4 finished QB1, 2 finished QB2, 3 finished QB4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

40%20%30%
  • QB140%(4)
  • QB220%(2)
  • QB4+30%(3)
  • Missed season10%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range16.0 median
0.0p25–p75 9.5–17.721.2
10 most similar players
Tyrod Taylor96%
2018·QB39 · 10.4 PPG
Patrick Mahomes95%
2024·QB7 · 18.3 PPG
Justin Herbert95%
2025·QB10 · 17.5 PPG
Lamar Jackson95%
2025·QB21 · 16.5 PPG
Jameis Winston95%
2020·QB54 · 2.2 PPG
Kyler Murray94%
2025·QB38 · 15.6 PPG

+4 more analogs

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (6 flags)

Risk Flags

3
  • Coaching Continuity

    Sean Mannion is Hurts' fourth offensive coordinator in four seasons and is installing a heavier under-center, play-action scheme; early OTA reports flagged adjustment friction as Hurts adapts.

  • Offensive Context

    Philadelphia traded 2025 WR1 A.J. Brown (121 targets) to New England just as Hurts posted career-low efficiency (7.1 YPA, 64.8% completion); the Eagles are leaning on DeVonta Smith and unproven rookies to rebuild the passing attack around him.

  • Age Concerns

    At 27, Hurts' fantasy floor still leans heavily on a 22% carry share and short-yardage/goal-line rushing; continued heavy read-option usage sustains injury exposure even though he's been durable outside a 2024 concussion/finger absence.

Opportunity Flags

3
  • Usage & Volume

    Hurts played 98-100% of offensive snaps in every game down the stretch, including the Wild Card loss, with zero real competition behind him — McKee and Howell are clipboard-holders and R5 rookie Cole Payton is a developmental stash.

  • Elite Production

    A 22% carry share and 8 rushing touchdowns in 2025 give Hurts one of the highest weekly floors at the position, insulating his fantasy output from the passing-game turbulence.

  • Draft Capital

    Philadelphia spent its first two 2026 picks on Makai Lemon (WR) and Eli Stowers (TE) to rebuild the passing offense post-Brown; if those connections develop under Mannion, Hurts gets cost-controlled, ascending weapons for multiple years.

Format Comparison

Jalen Hurts — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest6,445—
PPR 1QB4,020-2,425