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Jake Tonges headshot

Jake Tonges

TE · #39

SF · TE · Age 27

Redraft rank
TE47
▲TE47 · Depth+41 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T4
Overall
#274
ADP
TE88
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP+41 slots of value
Our rank
TE47
vs
Market ADP
TE88
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
TE88 ADP · +41 slots
Major
Case against
−
Projection rank
TE47 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
Source agreement
±28 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-26 tight ends most similar to Jake Tonges's 2025 season, 1 finished TE2, 8 finished TE4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

80%
  • TE211%(1)
  • TE4+80%(8)
  • Missed season10%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range3.5 median
1.1p25–p75 2.6–8.69.1
10 most similar players
Anthony Firkser98%
2022·TE81 · 2.4 PPG
Colby Parkinson95%
2025·TE15 · 9.3 PPG
Will Dissly94%
2023·TE52 · 3.4 PPG
James O'Shaughnessy94%
2019·TE45 · 8.3 PPG
Pharaoh Brown90%
2022·TE74 · 3.4 PPG
C.J. Uzomah88%
2020·Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Jake Tonges remains a contingent-value backup TE whose worth is tethered to George Kittle's torn-Achilles recovery, but two offseason developments modestly firm up his floor: a new 2-year/$8M contract and SF's decision to add no meaningful TE competition, confirming him as the locked-in insurance behind Kittle. The near-term catalyst is Kittle's uncertain Week 1 availability — Shanahan still targets it, but a September return is the realistic medical timeline, meaning Tonges has a live path to early-season starts in a strong Purdy-led offense. The concerns are durable: a run-heavy, CMC-centric scheme, a crowded WR room (Pearsall, Evans, Aiyuk), and the reality that a healthy Kittle erases his streaming relevance. At 26 with no dynasty appreciation runway behind a younger elite starter, he is not a long-term asset. Recommendation: HOLD in deeper dynasty/TE-premium leagues as cheap Kittle insurance, with a speculative BUY-LOW window only if you need an early-2026 streaming TE and can acquire him for near-minimum cost; SELL into any preseason hype if Kittle's recovery news stays positive.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Kittle Dependency2

    George Kittle is projected to miss at least half of the 2026 season while recovering from a torn Achilles, but Kittle expects to return to action "well before November" during the 2026 season. Once healthy, Tonges reverts to third-string with minimal role.

  • Injury Concerns

    Tonges suffered plantar fascia in the team's Divisional Round loss against the Seahawks and is expected to miss the next few weeks. This compounds the uncertainty around his offseason availability.

  • Kittle Early Return

    George Kittle is targeting a Week 1 return from his Achilles tear after receiving SpeedBridge surgery with a 6-10 month recovery timeline, which would eliminate Tonges' path to consistent volume much sooner than initially projected.

  • Minimal Backup Role

    When Kittle returned in 2025, Tonges saw just 12% of snaps with zero targets, demonstrating he has no role when the starter is healthy in Kyle Shanahan's offense.

  • Depth Chart Competition

    Kittle is targeting a return potentially near the 2026 regular-season opener despite a January 2026 Achilles tear; even if delayed, Tonges' window as a starter is finite and predictable. His 2025 production split (22/209/2 TD in 5 Kittle-out games vs. 5/24/2 TD in 10 Kittle-active games) illustrates the binary nature of his value.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Injury Upside2

    Kittle's January 2026 Achilles tear carries a 9-12 month medical consensus timeline, meaning Tonges is likely the 49ers' TE1 for the first 4-8 weeks of the 2026 season in a top-5 offense. Even a 'best-case' Kittle return carries risk of setback, extending Tonges' window.

  • Kittle Achilles Severity

    With Kittle expected to miss roughly half of the 2026 season, the 49ers need a tight end who can step in and shoulder meaningful snaps, and Tonges has already shown he can handle that responsibility.

  • Proven When Activated

    Tonges finished the 2025 season with 293 yards and five touchdowns on 34 receptions, and averaged 4.8 receptions and 44.8 yards with three touchdowns in the six games that Kittle was inactive.

  • 2026 Starter Potential

    If Kittle's recovery extends beyond Week 1 or he suffers setbacks, Tonges would step into a starting role with elite QB play from Brock Purdy in one of the NFL's best offensive schemes.

  • Contract Security

    Tonges signed a 2-year, $8M deal ($5.5M guaranteed) confirming the 49ers view him as the successor-in-waiting, not just emergency depth. The contract provides dynasty roster stability and signals front-office confidence through at least 2027.

Format Comparison

Jake Tonges — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,150—
PPR SF1,008-142