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Jake Ferguson headshot

Jake Ferguson

TE · #14

DAL · TE · Age 27

◆FLEX

Jake Ferguson's recent target share has been modest, with an average of just 9.5% over his last four games.

Role & volume
Over the past four games, Jake Ferguson has seen a snap share ranging from 29% to 71%, indicating inconsistent usage in the offense.
Projected role
With Zack Kuntz now back on the team and commanding a primary passing-game role, Ferguson's target share is likely to remain contested and potentially limited.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Given his recent performance and the return of competition for targets, Ferguson projects as a low-end TE12 with a modest ceiling in PPR formats.
Intel may be outdated · updated 6 days ago
Current statusDAL
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Slight buy-low — we value him a bit above the marketSlight
Why
Strong usage productionSolid target shareAge 27 · peak window
  • ▲Expected fantasy points
  • ▲Dynasty age curve
  • ▲Opportunity share
Our view vs Market↑ 16 pts above market
Our view
92
Market
76
Producing above value

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Target Volume

    Even with an uncontested TE1 job, Ferguson sits third in Dallas' pecking order behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, which caps how much of the passing-game pie he can realistically claim.

  • Efficiency Ceiling

    A short average depth of target (4.6 yards) means Ferguson's fantasy output leans heavily on touchdown variance rather than yardage, leaving him exposed to regression if red-zone looks dry up.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Contract Situation

    Ferguson signed a four-year extension during 2026 training camp that runs through 2029, formalizing Dallas' long-term commitment to him as the primary receiving tight end.

  • Depth Chart Security

    No 2026 draft capital or notable free-agent addition threatens the TE1 job — Spann-Ford, Schoonmaker, and Fant are pure depth pieces, leaving his role secure barring injury.

Format Comparison

Jake Ferguson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,109—
PPR SF1,825-284