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Jake Ferguson headshot

Jake Ferguson

TE · #14

DAL · TE · Age 27

◆FLEX

Jake Ferguson's recent target share has been modest, with an average of just 9.5% over his last four games.

Role & volume
Over the past four games, Jake Ferguson has seen a snap share ranging from 29% to 71%, indicating inconsistent usage in the offense.
Projected role
With Zack Kuntz now back on the team and commanding a primary passing-game role, Ferguson's target share is likely to remain contested and potentially limited.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Given his recent performance and the return of competition for targets, Ferguson projects as a low-end TE12 with a modest ceiling in PPR formats.
Intel may be outdated · updated 43 days ago
Current statusDAL
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Slight buy-low — we value him a bit above the marketSlight
Why
Strong usage productionSolid target shareAge 27 · peak window
  • ▲Expected fantasy points
  • ▲Dynasty age curve
  • ▲Opportunity share
Our view vs Market↑ 16 pts above market
Our view
92
Market
76
Producing above value

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Usage & Volume

    Target share has fallen from an 18% full-season role in 2025 to 6-9% across the last three logged games, with snap share also sliding to 60% or below in two of the last three outings — a real erosion of role, not just game-to-game noise.

  • Target Volume

    CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens form a high-end WR duo commanding early-down and red-zone looks, which caps Ferguson's ceiling as a true perimeter passing weapon even when he's on the field.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • TD Reliance Upside

    Coming off a career-best touchdown season, Ferguson has shown he can produce fantasy value even on modest target volume if he continues to see red-zone and scoring-down work in this Dallas offense.

  • Depth Chart Path

    Ferguson remains the unchallenged TE1 on Dallas' depth chart with no meaningful same-position competition (Brevyn Spann-Ford, Luke Schoonmaker, and other reserves are clearly behind him), preserving his baseline role even amid a target-share dip.

Format Comparison

Jake Ferguson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,082—
PPR SF1,798-284