Jahmyr Gibbs

Gibbs' production drops significantly with Montgomery healthy, averaging 16.3 touches and 18.2 PPR points per game in 13 games with healthy Montgomery versus 22.5 touches and 31.5 PPR points without. The Lions could trade or release David Montgomery this offseason, but his contract extension is still uncertain.

Both Gibbs and Montgomery's success rates dropped out of the top-30 this season from top-10 previously, suggesting offensive line issues hurt both backs' efficiency. Interior O-line instability exists with Glasgow and left tackle Decker both banged up and uncertain to return in 2026.

David Montgomery's status remains uncertain as GM Brad Holmes indicated potential trade discussions, though Montgomery is under contract through 2027. If Montgomery stays, Gibbs' touch ceiling remains capped compared to true bellcow backs.

John Morton was fired after one season; new OC Drew Petzing (ex-Cardinals) installs a new run-first, play-action system in 2026. Scheme transitions introduce early-season inefficiency and target-volume uncertainty until the offense clicks — one Lions WR publicly noted the offense 'won't click right away.'

The Lions exercised Gibbs' fifth-year option but extension talks (~$19M AAV, market-setting) have not closed as of April 16. Mike Florio has flagged holdout potential if a deal isn't done before training camp, which would cost Gibbs reps in Petzing's new system during a critical installation period.

Gibbs transitions to a true bellcow role with Pacheco as low-cost depth — increased volume without a true relief back means less game-script rest. High-touch bellcow usage historically accelerates injury risk, and Gibbs has prior hamstring history from 2024 preseason.

If Montgomery is traded this offseason (which Holmes indicated is possible), Gibbs could command 70-80% of backfield touches. His 22.5 touches and 31.5 PPR PPG without Montgomery dwarfed his 16.3/18.2 splits with Montgomery healthy in 2025.

Gibbs led all RBs with 20 TDs in 2025 while finishing 5th in rushing yards and top-6 in targets/catches/receiving yards. He tied Barry Sanders and Randy Moss with 31 career games with a TD through three seasons, cementing elite dual-threat profile.

Talks are actively underway on a projected 4yr/$76M deal (~$19M AAV) that would make Gibbs the highest-paid RB in NFL history. A signed extension pre-camp signals organizational commitment, removes holdout risk, and confirms dynasty managers can invest long without off-field uncertainty.

New OC Drew Petzing ranked 2nd in rushing YPC (4.92) and ran a run-first, play-action-heavy, motion-and-bootleg system in Arizona — a direct upgrade over Morton's scheme and an ideal fit for Gibbs as both an inside-zone runner and receiving back.

David Montgomery was traded to Houston in March 2026, and Dan Campbell publicly confirmed an expanded role for Gibbs. With Pacheco as low-cost RB2 depth, Gibbs is the unquestioned lead back in one of the NFL's best offenses — the structural RBBC concern that capped his 2025 ceiling is now eliminated.

At 23, Gibbs is entering the 24-27 peak production window for RBs with his receiving profile. He already holds the NFL record for most touchdowns in a player's first three seasons, and his best statistical years are likely still ahead.