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Jacoby Brissett headshot

Jacoby Brissett

QB · #34

ARI · QB · Age 33

Redraft rank
QB30
▲QB30 · Flex play+38 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T3
Overall
#115
ADP
QB68
Consensus
Coin flip

Jacoby Brissett's 2025 season saw him start in 14 games with a respectable 16.2 PPG, but his role as Arizona's starter is tenuous due to the team drafting Carson Beck in the third round.

Role & trajectory
Brissett secured 100% of the starting snaps and carries in 2025, but his role as Arizona's starter is at risk due to the team drafting Carson Beck (R3) with the intent of handing him the keys at some point during the season.
Projected outlook
Brissett projects as a FLEX option in 2026, given his solid production last year and Arizona's strong supporting cast, but his ceiling is limited by Beck's development timeline and potential mid-season displacement.
Risk & schedule
The primary risk for Brissett is the competition from Carson Beck, who could take over as starter if Brissett struggles or underperforms in the early part of the season.
Value vs ADP+38 slots of value
Our rank
QB30
vs
Market ADP
QB68
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
QB68 ADP · +38 slots
Major
Case against
−
Source agreement
±27 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Projection rank, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-33 quarterbacks most similar to Jacoby Brissett's 2025 season, 1 finished QB1, 2 finished QB2, 2 finished QB3, 1 finished QB4+, 4 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

19%21%41%
  • QB110%(1)
  • QB219%(2)
  • QB321%(2)
  • QB4+9%(1)
  • Missed season41%(4)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
59%hang on~14.4 PPG·41%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–15.618.4
10 most similar players
Cam Newton98%
2022·Missed the season
Ryan Tannehill97%
2022·QB25 · 13.8 PPG
Aaron Rodgers75%
2018·QB12 · 19.5 PPG
Josh Johnson73%
2019·Missed the season
Russell Wilson70%
2022·QB17 · 15.1 PPG
Tyrod Taylor68%
2022·Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Starting Opportunity Uncertainty

    Kyler Murray is on injured reserve, but Murray could still return to the Cardinals in 2026, and a trade is not guaranteed. If Murray stays or returns healthy, Brissett reverts to backup status immediately.

  • Kyler Murray Uncertainty

    Arizona's QB situation remains in flux with reports that the Cardinals are 'likely to move on' from Murray via trade, but retention is also possible. If Murray stays, Brissett immediately becomes a trade candidate with minimal value.

  • Draft Capital

    The Cardinals hold the #3 overall pick with QB among their top-listed needs. Even if they don't use it at 3, a Day 2 selection (Ty Simpson mocked in rounds 2-3) would begin a transition clock that displaces Brissett no later than 2027 — and possibly mid-2026 if the team stumbles out of the gate.

  • Contract Situation

    Brissett and the Cardinals are reported as 'significantly' far apart on a reworked deal and he's skipping offseason work; a prolonged holdout hands first-team reps to Beck and accelerates his own displacement.

  • Dynasty Ceiling

    Brissett is a 33-year-old bridge starter with no realistic multi-year dynasty relevance. Any remaining trade value is a 2026 superflex rental and should be extracted now by dynasty managers holding him.

  • Depth Chart Threat

    Arizona drafted Carson Beck 65th overall (R3) in the 2026 NFL Draft as their long-term franchise QB. Though Beck is expected to sit in 2026, he represents an accelerating mid-season benching risk if Brissett struggles — particularly after Week 8.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Offensive Context Strength

    Brissett's Cardinals offense has averaged 22.1 points per game since Week 6 with 372.1 total yards and 284.1 passing yards—nearly 100 yards more per game than under Murray in Weeks 1-5, reflecting strong offensive system fit.

  • Established Starter Role

    Brissett passed for 3,366 yards and 23 touchdowns in 12 starts, demonstrating sufficient volume and production to hold starter value if Murray departs. Reports indicate Brissett could merit a mid-round pick trade return.

  • Offensive Context2

    Brissett's supporting cast ranks among the best a bridge QB could inherit: Trey McBride (elite dynasty TE), Marvin Harrison Jr. (ascending WR1), and Trey Benson at RB give him a production floor that few journeymen enjoy — the weapons prop his numbers more than his talent does.

  • Scheme Fit

    Brissett previously started under Frank Reich (Colts) and Kevin Stefanski (Browns)—both now in positions with teams needing QBs (Jets and Falcons), creating potential trade interest with familiar offensive minds.

  • Trade Candidate

    If Murray stays with Arizona, Brissett becomes a workable trade candidate with coaching connections to Jets OC Frank Reich and Falcons HC Kevin Stefanski. His $4.88M salary makes him attractive as a veteran bridge option.

Format Comparison

Jacoby Brissett — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest1,413—
PPR 1QB913-500