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Isaiah Likely headshot

Isaiah Likely

TE · #12

NYG · TE · Age 26

Redraft rank
TE15
•TE15 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#147
ADP
TE12
Consensus
Some split

Isaiah Likely's $40M contract and John Harbaugh's public guarantee of a breakout season make him the Giants' clear TE1, despite competition from Theo Johnson.

Role & trajectory
Likely is projected to be New York's de facto WR2/move-piece, replacing Wan'Dale Robinson's vacated targets in a wide-open offense led by Jaxson Dart and Malik Nabers.
Projected outlook
With Harbaugh's system familiarity and the Giants' commitment to Likely as their marquee offseason acquisition, he profiles as a high-end TE2 with potential for TE1 upside in 2026.
Risk & schedule
Theo Johnson is set to compete for targets regularly, potentially limiting Likely's realistic range at low-end TE1 to high-end TE2. Additionally, Jaxson Dart's development pace and the Giants' run-heavy scheme pose risks to target volume.
Value vs ADP-3 slots (reach)
Our rank
TE15
vs
Market ADP
TE12
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
TE15 · proj. consensus
Notable
+
Source agreement
±5 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Case against
−
ADP value
TE12 ADP · -3 slots
Minor
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-25 tight ends most similar to Isaiah Likely's 2025 season, 2 finished TE3, 6 finished TE4+, 2 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

21%60%19%
  • TE321%(2)
  • TE4+60%(6)
  • Missed season19%(2)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range2.7 median
0.0p25–p75 1.3–4.86.5
10 most similar players
Foster Moreau87%
2022·TE28 · 6.2 PPG
Jesse James82%
2019·TE56 · 2.3 PPG
Durham Smythe78%
2020·TE45 · 4.5 PPG
Ross Dwelley75%
2021·Missed the season
Mo Alie-Cox74%
2019·TE75 · 1.9 PPG
Tyler Davis71%
2022·TE92 · 1.3 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Sell-high — we value him below the market
Why
Average usage productionSolid target shareAge 26 · ascendingTDs due to regress
  • ▼Draft-capital pedigree
Our view vs Market↓ 29 pts below market
Our view
51
Market
80
Long career runway

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • QB Uncertainty2

    Jaxson Dart enters only his second NFL season as the Giants' presumed starter with a limited track record (4-8, 15 TDs in 12 starts). If Dart regresses or the NYG passing attack stagnates, even an elite usage design centered on Likely will fail to produce top-tier fantasy numbers.

  • Free Agency Uncertainty

    Likely is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and it is unclear whether Baltimore will make an effort to resign him, creating acute departure risk.

  • Target Volume

    Likely posted career lows across the board and missed three games, suffering a foot injury in camp that required surgery. In 12 contests, Likely caught 22 of 31 targets for 248 yards and one touchdown, a major disappointment vs. his 2024 career year.

  • Free Agency Departure

    Likely is an unrestricted free agent this offseason and the Ravens extended Mark Andrews to a 3-year, $39.3M deal in December, signaling Andrews is the priority. Multiple sources project Likely will depart Baltimore for a starting role elsewhere.

  • 2025 Production Decline

    Likely suffered a foot injury requiring surgery in training camp, missed 3 games, and posted career lows across the board with just 22 catches for 248 yards and 1 TD on 31 targets in 12 games. This tanked his market value heading into free agency.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Andrews Extension Softens Competition

    Andrews agreed to a three-year extension worth $39.3 million with $26 million guaranteed, locking him through 2028. Andrews had a disappointing 2025 campaign, and the two tight ends capped each other's potential, suggesting if Likely remains, shared volume model could improve.

  • Role Elevation

    Likely exits Baltimore's entrenched TE timeshare and steps into a clear TE1 role for the first time in his career — signed to a 3-year, $40-47M deal as the Giants' marquee offseason acquisition with the explicit intent to build the offense around him.

  • Usage Design

    OC Matt Nagy has explicitly blueprinted Likely's deployment after Travis Kelce's Kansas City role — full formation movement, pre-snap motion, and scheme-engineered mismatches. This is the highest-ceiling usage model available in dynasty for a TE.

  • Role Expansion

    Harbaugh has publicly designated Likely as the 'receiver TE' in a complementary two-TE system with Theo Johnson as the blocker — not a competing timeshare. This framing strongly suggests Likely routes the passing-game role and Johnson handles the run-support work.

  • Coaching Continuity

    John Harbaugh stated he is 'certain' Likely will break out in 2026, calling him key to Jaxson Dart's success. A HC who built his offense around TEs in Baltimore, personally recruiting Likely, is a uniquely bullish overlay rarely seen in dynasty TE situations.

  • Coaching Fit

    John Harbaugh left Baltimore to become the Giants' HC and personally targeted Likely on a 3yr/$40M ($47M upside) deal, publicly saying he's 'certain' Likely breaks out. Scheme familiarity plus a franchise-level financial commitment is the strongest possible signal of intended role.

Format Comparison

Isaiah Likely — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,337—
PPR SF2,034-303