Risk Flags
6- Target Volume
Likely posted career lows across the board and missed three games, suffering a foot injury in camp that required surgery. In 12 contests, Likely caught 22 of 31 targets for 248 yards and one touchdown, a major disappointment vs. his 2024 career year.
- Free Agency Uncertainty
Likely is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and it is unclear whether Baltimore will make an effort to resign him, creating acute departure risk.
- Free Agency Departure
Likely is an unrestricted free agent this offseason and the Ravens extended Mark Andrews to a 3-year, $39.3M deal in December, signaling Andrews is the priority. Multiple sources project Likely will depart Baltimore for a starting role elsewhere.
- 2025 Production Decline
Likely suffered a foot injury requiring surgery in training camp, missed 3 games, and posted career lows across the board with just 22 catches for 248 yards and 1 TD on 31 targets in 12 games. This tanked his market value heading into free agency.
- QB Uncertainty
Jaxson Dart enters only his second NFL season as the Giants' presumed starter with a limited track record (4-8, 15 TDs in 12 starts). If Dart regresses or the NYG passing attack stagnates, even an elite usage design centered on Likely will fail to produce top-tier fantasy numbers.
- Injury Concerns
Likely missed significant time in 2025 training camp due to foot surgery, which compressed his role and contributed to a disappointing 12-game stretch (61.7 pts, #46 PPR). Durability is a real question entering a high-stakes prove-it year on a big contract.