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TE #117
Isaiah Likely headshot
Isaiah Likely headshot

Isaiah Likely

Tier 8

NYG · TE · Age 26

Last synced 1 day ago

Dynasty Value

1,974Rising

Isaiah Likely's outlook flipped materially this offseason: he signed a 3yr/$40M (up to $47M) free-agent deal with the Giants in March 2026, reuniting with John...

Trajectory data unavailable
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Target Volume

    Likely posted career lows across the board and missed three games, suffering a foot injury in camp that required surgery. In 12 contests, Likely caught 22 of 31 targets for 248 yards and one touchdown, a major disappointment vs. his 2024 career year.

  • Free Agency Uncertainty

    Likely is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and it is unclear whether Baltimore will make an effort to resign him, creating acute departure risk.

  • Free Agency Departure

    Likely is an unrestricted free agent this offseason and the Ravens extended Mark Andrews to a 3-year, $39.3M deal in December, signaling Andrews is the priority. Multiple sources project Likely will depart Baltimore for a starting role elsewhere.

  • 2025 Production Decline

    Likely suffered a foot injury requiring surgery in training camp, missed 3 games, and posted career lows across the board with just 22 catches for 248 yards and 1 TD on 31 targets in 12 games. This tanked his market value heading into free agency.

  • QB Uncertainty

    Jaxson Dart enters only his second NFL season as the Giants' presumed starter with a limited track record (4-8, 15 TDs in 12 starts). If Dart regresses or the NYG passing attack stagnates, even an elite usage design centered on Likely will fail to produce top-tier fantasy numbers.

  • Injury Concerns

    Likely missed significant time in 2025 training camp due to foot surgery, which compressed his role and contributed to a disappointing 12-game stretch (61.7 pts, #46 PPR). Durability is a real question entering a high-stakes prove-it year on a big contract.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Role Expansion

    Harbaugh has publicly designated Likely as the 'receiver TE' in a complementary two-TE system with Theo Johnson as the blocker — not a competing timeshare. This framing strongly suggests Likely routes the passing-game role and Johnson handles the run-support work.

  • Andrews Extension Softens Competition

    Andrews agreed to a three-year extension worth $39.3 million with $26 million guaranteed, locking him through 2028. Andrews had a disappointing 2025 campaign, and the two tight ends capped each other's potential, suggesting if Likely remains, shared volume model could improve.

  • Role Elevation

    Likely exits Baltimore's entrenched TE timeshare and steps into a clear TE1 role for the first time in his career — signed to a 3-year, $40-47M deal as the Giants' marquee offseason acquisition with the explicit intent to build the offense around him.

  • Usage Design

    OC Matt Nagy has explicitly blueprinted Likely's deployment after Travis Kelce's Kansas City role — full formation movement, pre-snap motion, and scheme-engineered mismatches. This is the highest-ceiling usage model available in dynasty for a TE.

  • Coaching Continuity

    John Harbaugh stated he is 'certain' Likely will break out in 2026, calling him key to Jaxson Dart's success. A HC who built his offense around TEs in Baltimore, personally recruiting Likely, is a uniquely bullish overlay rarely seen in dynasty TE situations.

  • Coaching Fit

    John Harbaugh left Baltimore to become the Giants' HC and personally targeted Likely on a 3yr/$40M ($47M upside) deal, publicly saying he's 'certain' Likely breaks out. Scheme familiarity plus a franchise-level financial commitment is the strongest possible signal of intended role.

Scenarios (4)
  • Reliable TE1 Floor Emergeslikely+15%

    Harbaugh fulfills stated plan; Likely settles as the Giants' lead receiving TE with a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 weekly outcome

  • Harbaugh Bet Pays Off, Top-6 TEpossible+40%

    Dart leaps, defenses key on Nabers, and Likely absorbs a true WR2-level target share to finish top-6 at the position

  • Two-TE Timeshare Caps Ceilingpossible-18%

    Theo Johnson retains red-zone/route equity and the 12-personnel split keeps both as matchup-dependent TE2s

  • Dart Regression or Injury Derails Yearunlikely-30%

    Sophomore QB stall, offensive dysfunction, or a Likely injury wastes the prove-it window

Format Comparison

Isaiah Likely — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,251—
PPR SF1,974-277