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Hunter Henry headshot

Hunter Henry

TE · #26

NE · TE · Age 31

Redraft rank
TE18
•TE18 · Every-week starter
Tier
T3
Overall
#151
ADP
TE14
Consensus
Some split

Hunter Henry's 768 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2025 are a career peak, but his 31-year-old age and the Patriots' WR upgrades signal a lower-volume, TD-dependent role for 2026.

Role & trajectory
Hunter Henry's target share fell to 17.4% in 2025, with snap share dropping to 78.6%, indicating a usage erosion that is likely to continue as the Patriots add receiving weapons.
Projected outlook
Henry remains New England's unquestioned TE1 for 2026 but faces competition from rookie Eli Raridon and star WR A.J. Brown, limiting his upside despite a strong rapport with QB Drake Maye.
Risk & schedule
At 31 years old, Henry is entering the steep phase of TE decline, with New England's offense in flux and no long-term security beyond 2026, making him a high-risk FLEX option dependent on red-zone targets.
Value vs ADP-4 slots (reach)
Our rank
TE18
vs
Market ADP
TE14
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
TE18 · proj. consensus
Notable
+
Source agreement
±4 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Case against
−
ADP value
TE14 ADP · -4 slots
Notable
−
Age / role
age 31 TE
Notable
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 8 age-31 tight ends most similar to Hunter Henry's 2025 season, 4 finished TE1, 2 finished TE2, 2 missed the season.

Based on just 8 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → TE1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

47%26%27%
  • TE147%(4)
  • TE226%(2)
  • Missed season27%(2)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range9.6 median
0.0p25–p75 2.4–14.217.2
8 most similar players
George Kittle85%
2025·TE14 · 13.6 PPG
Jared Cook83%
2018·Missed the season
Rob Gronkowski69%
2021·TE5 · 14.1 PPG
Travis Kelce69%
2021·TE1 · 17.8 PPG
Zach Ertz68%
2021·TE7 · 10.3 PPG
Darren Waller67%
2024·Missed the season

+2 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Strong usage productionSolid target shareAge 31 · window closing
Our view vs Market↑ 14 pts above market
Our view
67
Market
53
Age-curve riskProducing above valueHigh draft pedigree

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Contract Situation2

    Hunter Henry is in the final year of his 3-year, $27M deal with only $2.5M in dead cap, making him an easy cut or near-certain UFA after 2026. His dynasty value will crater regardless of 2026 production once he departs, and no extension has been reported.

  • Age Concerns2

    Henry turns 32 in December 2026, entering the steep phase of TE age-related decline. His last 4 games confirm the trajectory — target share down to 12% and snaps slipping to 72% — suggesting usage erosion is already underway despite a career-best season headline.

  • Playoff Volatility

    Henry and Hooper were not overly involved in pass protection and were not a big factor in the Super Bowl loss. In three postseason contests, Henry combined for a 6-81-1 line on 10 targets, showing inconsistent playoff role despite regular season success.

  • Target Volume

    New England traded for star WR A.J. Brown on June 1, 2026, adding a true alpha to a room with Doubs, Boutte and Kyle Williams. Henry's 2025 target share was already trending down (12% last 4 games), and Brown's arrival caps his ceiling and likely pushes him further into a complementary/red-zone role.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Career Year Momentum

    At age 31, Henry is coming off arguably the best season of his career with 60 receptions for 768 yards and seven touchdowns, his best yardage mark. This demonstrates continued ability as a reliable weapon.

  • Young QB Connection

    Drake Maye finished his second season with 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and was named All-Pro second team. Maye has loved throwing the ball to Hunter Henry, establishing a strong rapport.

  • QB Chemistry

    Drake Maye finished second in MVP voting with 4,394 passing yards and 31 TDs and has shown strong rapport with Henry. Maye called him 'the best tight end I've played with in my lifetime' after the divisional round.

  • Offensive Context

    Josh McDaniels returns as OC for year 2 alongside Drake Maye (5,222 yds / 37 TDs in 2025) and QB coach Ashton Grant, who turned down the Raiders' OC job to stay. Henry was Maye's most reliable check-down and red-zone target all season; the unchanged offensive infrastructure is a concrete near-term floor.

  • QB Dependency

    Drake Maye has established clear trust in Henry as his primary check-down and red-zone target; in an offense specifically retooled around Maye's Super Bowl window, Henry's role as the veteran TE1 is protected throughout 2026.

  • Red Zone Usage

    Henry scored 8 TDs on a Super Bowl contender and remains the clear TE1 entering 2026. Julian Hill (the new TE2) is a blocker rather than a receiving threat, so Henry's red-zone role has no direct internal challenger until a draft pick develops.

Format Comparison

Hunter Henry — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,316—
PPR SF1,192-124