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Gunnar Helm headshot

Gunnar Helm

TE · #23

TEN · TE · Age 23

Redraft rank
TE26
•TE26 · Flex play
Tier
T3
Overall
#173
ADP
TE27
Consensus
Coin flip

Gunnar Helm's 22.4% targets-per-route-run as a rookie signals breakout potential, but his role is capped by new OC Brian Daboll's crowded target tree and lingering toe injury.

Role & trajectory
Helm enters the season as the Titans' undisputed TE1 with only Daniel Bellinger and rookie Jaren Kanak behind him, but his role is threatened by a crowded receiving corps under Brian Daboll.
Projected outlook
Despite modest counting stats (44-357-2), Helm's 22.4% targets-per-route-run as a rookie suggests he could be poised for a breakout season if Cam Ward develops and his injury heals.
Risk & schedule
Helm's ceiling is limited by the Titans' new offensive scheme, which features multiple high-priority receivers like Carnell Tate (R1), Wan'Dale Robinson, and Calvin Ridley ahead of him in target order.
Value vs ADP+1 slots of value
Our rank
TE26
vs
Market ADP
TE27
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Age / role
age 23 TE
Minor
Case against
−
Source agreement
±9 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Projection rank, ADP value
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-23 tight ends most similar to Gunnar Helm's 2025 season, 3 finished TE1, 2 finished TE2, 1 finished TE3, 4 finished TE4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

34%18%38%
  • TE134%(3)
  • TE218%(2)
  • TE310%(1)
  • TE4+38%(4)
Next-season PPG range7.4 median
3.5p25–p75 4.1–8.613.9
10 most similar players
Isaiah Likely78%
2024·TE12 · 8.8 PPG
George Kittle69%
2018·TE3 · 16.2 PPG
Adam Trautman69%
2022·TE50 · 3.7 PPG
Ja'Tavion Sanders63%
2025·TE49 · 4.5 PPG
Cade Otton59%
2023·TE12 · 8.4 PPG
Jake Ferguson58%
2024·TE27 · 7.5 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Target Volume

    Even as the clear TE1, Helm sits behind a crowded pass-catching tree under new OC Brian Daboll — R1 rookie Carnell Tate (WR1), Wan'Dale Robinson, and Calvin Ridley all command targets ahead of him, capping his realistic ceiling.

  • Injury Concerns

    Helm suffered a toe injury in Week 15 against San Francisco, ending his rookie season. While not surgery-level serious, lingering toe injuries can affect receiving fluidity and agility for tight ends heading into 2026.

  • Offensive Volatility

    The Titans have hired new head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll for 2026, meaning offensive scheme and TE usage patterns will change from the 2025 system that favored Helm's development.

  • Okonkwo Free Agency

    Chig Okonkwo is a pending unrestricted free agent with market value projected at $10-12M annually, and the Titans have expressed interest in re-signing him. If Okonkwo returns, Helm's path to expanded volume remains blocked in 2026.

  • QB Dependency

    Helm's ceiling is directly tied to Cam Ward's Year 2 development. Ward's ability to consistently find the TE in critical situations—and their chemistry building—will take time, keeping a lid on Helm's target volume while Ward continues to settle in as a starter.

  • Usage & Volume

    Game logs show target share falling to 6% and snaps to 58% over the final stretch (1.1 pts in W17), with the season finale missed — the bullish 'breakout' narrative must be reconciled against a fading rookie close.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Elite Production

    Helm surpassed Bo Scaife's franchise record for most receptions by a rookie tight end, with 44 catches in his first NFL season. Late-season, he nudged ahead of Chig Okonkwo among Tennessee's tight ends, with at least four catches in four of his last five games.

  • Elite Target Accumulation

    Helm was emerging as Cam Ward's top target, especially with injuries to Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor, and recorded at least five targets in three of Tennessee's last five games. This rapport with the young QB creates strong foundational chemistry heading into Year 2.

  • Role Expansion

    Chig Okonkwo's free-agent departure clears the path for Helm to be Tennessee's unquestioned TE1 pass-catcher in 2026. The Titans' signing of blocking specialist Bellinger — rather than another receiving TE — reinforces that Helm owns the receiving role outright.

  • QB Dependency

    Cam Ward is Tennessee's long-term franchise QB investment. A reliable TE who develops chemistry alongside a young ascending QB can compound dynasty value significantly over a 3–5 year arc, and Helm's 80% catch rate in Year 1 is the kind of efficiency that earns a QB's trust.

  • Target Volume

    Chigoziem Okonkwo signed with the Washington Commanders in free agency — the structured teammate data listing him as a current Titan is stale. Helm is the uncontested TE1 with Daniel Bellinger added purely as a blocking complement and Jaren Kanak (R7) a non-threatening project pick.

  • Scheme Fit

    New OC Brian Daboll has a strong history of featuring TEs (Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph, Daniel Bellinger at NYG) and his deliberate addition of Bellinger as Helm's blocker signals intentional architecture around Helm as the receiving TE in this offense.

Format Comparison

Gunnar Helm — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,562—
PPR SF1,405-157