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Greg Dortch headshot

Greg Dortch

WR · #161

DET · WR · Age 28

Redraft rank
WR151
◆WR151 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#393
ADP
WR118
Consensus
Coin flip

Greg Dortch's $1.4M prove-it deal with Detroit offers no dynasty security and projects him as a WR147, making him a bench player in redraft formats.

Role & trajectory
Dortch is projected to be the fourth or fifth option behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Isaac TeSlaa, with rookie Kendrick Law also competing for the final WR spot.
Projected outlook
With a 5% target share in Arizona and no clear path to increased usage on Detroit's offense, Dortch is unlikely to see significant volume or production as a receiver.
Risk & schedule
Dortch's value is primarily built on his special teams role as the punt returner, but even this carries risk given he is on injured reserve and has no guaranteed future commitment beyond 2026.
Value vs ADP-33 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR151
vs
Market ADP
WR118
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR151 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR118 ADP · -33 slots
Major
−
Source agreement
±54 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-27 receivers most similar to Greg Dortch's 2025 season, 1 finished WR3, 7 finished WR4+, 2 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

71%20%
  • WR310%(1)
  • WR4+71%(7)
  • Missed season20%(2)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range5.2 median
0.0p25–p75 3.0–7.78.6
10 most similar players
Braxton Berrios87%
2022·WR110 · 3.9 PPG
Chris Moore85%
2022·WR63 · 7.7 PPG
Isaiah McKenzie84%
2022·WR57 · 7.7 PPG
Trent Taylor83%
2021·Missed the season
Olamide Zaccheaus83%
2025·WR69 · 5.9 PPG
Tyler Boyd79%
2022·WR32 · 9.6 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Solid usage productionStrong target shareAge 28 · veteranTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↑ 17 pts above market
Our view
25
Market
8
Low draft pedigreeTD rebound upsideThin opportunity share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns

    Dortch is currently on injured reserve with a chest injury that forced him to miss the final games of the 2025 season. Recovery timeline and full health status entering 2026 remain uncertain.

  • Depth Chart

    Even when healthy, Dortch is a clear 4th or 5th option behind Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Zay Jones, and Simi Fehoko. Snap share was only 15% when healthy in 2025.

  • Target Competition

    Dortch left ARI and signed a 1-year, $1.4M deal with DET (March 18, 2026), sliding into a WR4 role behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Isaac TeSlaa. His target ceiling is materially lower in Detroit than it was in Arizona.

  • Depth Chart Position

    Dortch is the 4th WR in Detroit behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and ascending sophomore Isaac TeSlaa (6 TDs as a rookie). There is no realistic path to a top-3 offensive role barring multiple injuries.

  • Target Volume

    His 2025 ARI target share averaged just 5% over the final four weeks of the season, and his Detroit role (Kalif Raymond replacement) projects to similar or lower offensive involvement. Detroit's offense has too many mouths to feed above him.

  • Role Limitation

    Signed explicitly to replace Kalif Raymond as the punt returner and specialized slot gadget piece, not as a passing-game contributor. His value is built on special teams, which carries zero dynasty equity.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Spot Start Potential3

    When either Harrison or Jones have missed games, Dortch has shown ability to step up. He produced 119 yards and 2 TDs when Harrison was out in Weeks 11-12 of 2025.

  • Coaching Continuity

    Dortch reunites with Drew Petzing, who was his OC in Arizona for three years. Scheme familiarity could accelerate his integration and give him a leg up in camp competition over unfamiliar depth pieces.

  • Special Teams Value2

    Signed specifically as Kalif Raymond's replacement, Dortch's punt return ability gives him a near-guaranteed roster spot even without a significant offensive role, which maintains his streaming/handcuff floor.

Format Comparison

Greg Dortch — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest672—
PPR SF572-100