Risk Flags
4- Offensive Context
New York ran a run-leaning offense in 2025 (PROE -11%) and fielded the league's worst aerial attack; Wilson's own target share was already sliding pre-injury (17% share, 0.41 WOPR), capping his ceiling even as the clear WR1.
- QB Situation
New starter Geno Smith was acquired via trade from Las Vegas in March 2026 after a rough, 17-interception 2025 with the Raiders; his stronger 2022-23 form with Seattle is the bull case, but the pairing is unproven.
- Injury Concerns
Missed the back half of 2025 after a Week 10 knee sprain; no setbacks reported through the 2026 offseason program, but he hasn't yet been tested in live contact.
- Draft Capital
Jets traded up for Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr. at pick 30; team reporting frames him as complementary to Wilson, but he'll still siphon some short-area and red-zone work.