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Garrett Wilson headshot

Garrett Wilson

WR · #13

NYJ · WR · Age 26

Redraft rank
WR10
•WR10 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#50
ADP
WR13
Consensus
Some split

Garrett Wilson enters the 2026 season as a WR with an established track record, having secured his status as the Jets' unquestioned WR1 through a $130M extension that locks in target-hog usage.

Role & trajectory
Wilson's role is cemented as the team's alpha receiver with an 87% snap share and a clear path to lead the team in targets, despite a slight dip in weekly target shares towards the end of his injury-shortened 2025 season.
Projected outlook
With Frank Reich's receiver-friendly system and Wilson's proven ability to dominate within it, he projects as a reliable starter with potential for a resurgence in production, especially if the Jets' pass rate increases under new leadership.
Risk & schedule
The primary risk is competition from rookie Omar Cooper Jr., who could erode Wilson's target share margins by 2027, and the uncertainty of a bridge QB situation with Geno Smith and Cade Klubnik limiting immediate ceiling.
Value vs ADP+3 slots of value
Our rank
WR10
vs
Market ADP
WR13
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
WR10 · proj. consensus
Notable
+
ADP value
WR13 ADP · +3 slots
Minor
+
Source agreement
±5 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-25 receivers most similar to Garrett Wilson's 2025 season, 1 finished WR1, 3 finished WR2, 1 finished WR3, 5 finished WR4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

31%48%
  • WR111%(1)
  • WR231%(3)
  • WR310%(1)
  • WR4+48%(5)
Next-season PPG range13.2 median
3.3p25–p75 8.6–15.516.4
10 most similar players
Amari Cooper91%
2019·WR14 · 15.4 PPG
Robert Woods86%
2018·WR8 · 15.8 PPG
Cooper Kupp79%
2018·WR53 · 16.9 PPG
Jaylen Waddle76%
2025·WR27 · 12.1 PPG
Elijah Moore75%
2025·WR128 · 3.0 PPG
Jahan Dotson75%
2024·WR111 · 3.5 PPG

+4 more analogs

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionElite target shareAge 25 · ascendingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↑ 6 pts above market
Our view
97
Market
91
Elite target shareHigh draft pedigreeProducing above value

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (7 flags)

Risk Flags

4
  • Offensive Context

    New York ran a run-leaning offense in 2025 (PROE -11%) and fielded the league's worst aerial attack; Wilson's own target share was already sliding pre-injury (17% share, 0.41 WOPR), capping his ceiling even as the clear WR1.

  • QB Situation

    New starter Geno Smith was acquired via trade from Las Vegas in March 2026 after a rough, 17-interception 2025 with the Raiders; his stronger 2022-23 form with Seattle is the bull case, but the pairing is unproven.

  • Injury Concerns

    Missed the back half of 2025 after a Week 10 knee sprain; no setbacks reported through the 2026 offseason program, but he hasn't yet been tested in live contact.

  • Draft Capital

    Jets traded up for Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr. at pick 30; team reporting frames him as complementary to Wilson, but he'll still siphon some short-area and red-zone work.

Opportunity Flags

3
  • Usage & Volume2

    Now healthy, Wilson is listed atop every major 2026 Jets depth chart, erasing the injury-driven WR7 snapshot from the end of a lost 2025 season.

  • Market Value

    A lost second half of 2025 likely dented his market value more than his talent warrants; at 25 and still the passing game's clear focal point, this reads as a buy-low window before 2026 usage confirms the bounce-back.

Format Comparison

Garrett Wilson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest5,525—
PPR SF4,760-765