Risk Flags
1- Target Volume
Target share slid from a 14% season average to 11% down the stretch (as low as 7% in the Conference Championship), and a shallow 4.2 aDOT limits his ceiling even in weeks he is heavily used.
Evan Engram
TE · #41DEN · TE · Age 32
FLEX
Evan Engram's recent trend in target share signals a TE who is not consistently delivering high-end value despite his established role on DEN.
Role & volume
Over the last four games, Engram has averaged just an 11.6% target share and 35.5% snap share, indicating a diminished role in the passing game.
Projected role
Our value ranks him as TE32, suggesting he is not expected to be a weekly starter but rather a FLEX option with limited upside.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Given his recent performance and trend, Engram's floor appears to be around 2.2 PPR points from the last four games, while his ceiling is unlikely to exceed high-end TE1 territory due to inconsistent usage.
Intel may be outdated · updated 4 days ago
Current statusDEN
Our read vs. the market
BetaFairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Average usage productionAverage target shareAge 31 · window closingTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↑ 20 pts above market
Our view
53
Market
33
Age-curve riskTD regression riskHigh draft pedigree
Our own read · beta — not a trade price.
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (3 flags)
Opportunity Flags
2- Scoring Regression
Denver's red-zone usage produced 3.1 expected touchdowns for him in 2025 but only 1 actually scored, an unlucky finish that sets up positive touchdown regression if the red-zone role holds in 2026.
- Offensive Context
Sean Payton and Bo Nix both pointed to an expanded second-year joker role in training camp, citing more play-action and run-game usage, though this has not yet been confirmed by verified regular-season usage data.
Format Comparison
Evan Engram — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 943 | — |
| PPR SF | 850 | -93 |