Elijah Arroyo

TE · #31

SEA · TE · Age 23

Redraft rank

TE41

TE41 · Depth+5 slots of value vs ADP

Tier

Overall

#247

ADP

TE46

Consensus

Tight

Elijah Arroyo's 5.0% target share in a committee role with Seattle caps his upside as a speculative TE2.

Role & trajectory

Arroyo is projected to operate primarily as the pass-down/spacing complement behind AJ Barner, who holds down the inline and red-zone roles for Sam Darnold.

Projected outlook

At 23 years old, Arroyo remains in the value-appreciation window for tight ends, with strong OTA reviews suggesting potential role growth on a contending offense.

Risk & schedule

The primary risk is competition from Barner and a lingering durability question after missing four games due to a knee injury late in the 2025 season.

Value vs ADP+5 slots of value

Our rank

TE41

Market ADP

TE46

Priced right where they project.

What’s driving the season rank

Case for

ADP value

TE46 ADP · +5 slots

Notable

Source agreement

±1 rank σ · 2 sources

Notable

Age / role

age 23 TE

Minor

Case against

Projection rank

TE41 · proj. consensus

Notable

What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-22 tight ends most similar to Elijah Arroyo's 2025 season, 1 finished TE1, 1 finished TE2, 2 finished TE3, 4 finished TE4+, 2 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

21%40%19%

TE110%(1)
TE210%(1)
TE321%(2)
TE4+40%(4)
Missed season19%(2)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range4.7 median

0.0p25–p75 2.9–5.38.5

10 most similar players

Brenton Strange89%

2024TE32 · 6.5 PPG

Adam Shaheen87%

2018TE71 · 4.4 PPG

Dallas Goedert83%

2019TE8 · 9.9 PPG

Drew Sample82%

2020TE33 · 4.9 PPG

Anthony Firkser81%

2019TE40 · 5.0 PPG

Juwan Johnson81%

2021TE46 · 4.4 PPG

+4 more analogs

Our read vs. the market

Beta

No call yetLow confidence

Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

Target Volume
AJ Barner (52-519-6 in 2025, TE14 PPR) is the entrenched TE1 and primary red-zone target for Sam Darnold; Arroyo is cast as the pass-down/spacing complement, capping his weekly target floor. The structured data confirms a depressed rookie role (2.8 PPG, target share down to 3%).
Injury Concerns
A late-season knee injury cost Arroyo the final four regular-season games before he returned for the playoff run; he is healthy entering 2026 but the durability question lingers for a player who has yet to log a full season.

Opportunity Flags

Year-2 Breakout
Strong OTA reports and a clear pass-down/seam role have Arroyo flagged across dynasty media as a 2026 breakout candidate; even a modest snap/route bump on a Super Bowl-caliber Seattle offense would meaningfully lift his value off a cheap tier-6 price.
Age Trajectory
At 23, Arroyo is still firmly in the value-appreciation window for a TE, a position where breakouts routinely arrive in years 2-3.

Format Comparison

Elijah Arroyo — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR 1QBBest	1,248	—
PPR SF	1,101	-147

Format

Value

vs Best

PPR 1QBBest

1,248

—

PPR SF

1,101

-147