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Dylan Sampson headshot

Dylan Sampson

RB · #44

CLE · RB · Age 21

Redraft rank
RB45
▲RB45 · Depth+7 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T3
Overall
#210
ADP
RB52
Consensus
Coin flip

Dylan Sampson enters the 2026 season as Cleveland's RB2 with a 15.6% carry share, indicating limited volume but potential upside if Quinshon Judkins misses time.

Role & trajectory
Sampson is projected to serve primarily as the receiving back and third-down specialist behind Judkins, with a recent trend of rising snap share (up to 50% in Week 18) suggesting growing comfort from the coaching staff.
Projected outlook
Sampson's value is contingent on Judkins' health; if Judkins misses time, Sampson could see a significant increase in touches and potentially earn more carries as the primary back. His receiving profile (14% target share) provides a PPR-friendly floor.
Risk & schedule
Sampson faces competition from established veterans like Jerome Ford, who is now a free agent but could return or be replaced by another veteran if he departs. Additionally, Sampson's small frame and poor rushing efficiency (2.7 YPC) limit his ceiling as a ball-carrier.
Value vs ADP+7 slots of value
Our rank
RB45
vs
Market ADP
RB52
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
RB52 ADP · +7 slots
Notable
+
Age / role
age 21 RB
Minor
Case against
−
Projection rank
RB45 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
Source agreement
±9 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-21 backs most similar to Dylan Sampson's 2025 season, 1 finished RB2, 8 finished RB4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

79%
  • RB211%(1)
  • RB4+79%(8)
  • Missed season10%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range5.7 median
1.1p25–p75 3.9–8.412.5
10 most similar players
Marlon Mack79%
2018·RB17 · 14.7 PPG
Chase Edmonds78%
2019·RB52 · 8.3 PPG
Tony Pollard73%
2020·RB42 · 7.5 PPG
Braelon Allen72%
2025·RB88 · 3.8 PPG
Roschon Johnson71%
2024·RB54 · 6.5 PPG
Zonovan Knight70%
2023·Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Touch Competition

    Sampson totaled only 44-65 carries for 116-175 yards and zero TDs in 2025, averaging 2.7 yards per carry. Despite rookie status, he failed to establish himself over Jerome Ford or earn consistent role over established veterans.

  • Depth Chart

    Sampson finished 2025 with only 65 carries for 175 yards (2.7 YPC) and zero TDs behind Quinshon Judkins (827 yards, 7 TDs). Jerome Ford is a free agent but Raheim Sanders remains, and depth chart shows Sampson currently listed as RB1 only due to Judkins' IR status.

  • Inefficient Production

    Sampson averaged just 2.3-2.7 yards per carry on limited volume (44-65 attempts depending on source) in his rookie season. He struggled on the ground despite college pedigree as 2024 SEC Offensive Player of the Year with 22 TDs.

  • Depth Chart Block

    Quinshon Judkins is the unquestioned RB1 and is on track to return healthy for 2026 training camp after his Week 16 ankle fracture. Sampson's path to meaningful standalone touches is almost entirely gated by a Judkins setback.

  • Judkins Recovery Timeline

    Judkins underwent successful surgery for fractured fibula/dislocated ankle with 4-6 month recovery expected by June 2026. Recent reports indicate he's still in a heavy walking boot in early February, raising concerns about his Week 1 availability and potentially limiting Sampson's window.

  • Starter Return

    Judkins' anticipated full recovery materially reduces the RB1 window that made Sampson compelling in early offseason. His dynasty value is heavily contingent on Judkins suffering a setback, which is a coinflip catalyst rather than a baseline expectation.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Early Career Window

    At 21 years old, Sampson has 6+ years before typical RB decline begins; buying now captures his full peak earning potential in dynasty leagues.

  • Judkins Recovery Timeline

    If Judkins' fibula fracture and ankle dislocation require extended 2026 recovery, Sampson could inherit significant early-season volume as a change-of-pace or even primary back while Judkins rehabilitates.

  • Injury Concerns

    With Judkins' rehab reportedly not progressing smoothly (still in heavy boot) and Jerome Ford now a free agent, Sampson could enter 2026 training camp as the lead back if Judkins isn't ready for Week 1. Todd Monken's power-spread scheme emphasizes bellcow backs.

  • Handcuff Upside

    Judkins missed two games in 2025 with his ankle fracture and has an established injury history. If he misses time in 2026, Sampson steps directly into a Todd Monken run-heavy offense that ranked 1st in NFL rushing under Monken's Ravens tenure — a high-leverage handcuff role.

  • Receiving Upside

    Sampson's 2.01 YPRR ranked 2nd among all NFL RBs in 2025, and he caught 33-of-40 targets for 271 yards and 2 TDs. This receiving profile is a dynasty differentiator — it keeps him roster-worthy even in a timeshare and makes him dangerous in PPR formats regardless of the backfield split.

  • Injury Upside

    Judkins is still rehabbing a serious leg injury; any setback or re-injury would hand Sampson a clear three-down lead role, the single biggest swing factor in his dynasty value.

Format Comparison

Dylan Sampson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,661—
PPR SF1,402-259