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Dyami Brown headshot

Dyami Brown

WR · #141

WAS · WR · Age 26

Redraft rank
WR150
▲WR150 · Depth+19 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T4
Overall
#390
ADP
WR169
Consensus
Coin flip

Dyami Brown's 2025 season saw his target share drop to just 6.9%, indicating a significant loss of offensive trust.

Role & trajectory
Brown faces severe competition in Washington, with Antonio Williams and Jaylin Lane ahead of him on the depth chart, limiting his opportunity for meaningful targets.
Projected outlook
At 26.2 years old, Brown's career trajectory is uncertain, as he has not established himself as a reliable starter over five seasons and lacks the upside typically seen in younger receivers.
Risk & schedule
Brown's exact role remains unclear with multiple young competitors vying for snaps, making it difficult to project consistent production or a significant target share.
Value vs ADP+19 slots of value
Our rank
WR150
vs
Market ADP
WR169
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
WR169 ADP · +19 slots
Major
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR150 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
Source agreement
±221 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-26 receivers most similar to Dyami Brown's 2025 season, 7 finished WR4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

70%30%
  • WR4+70%(7)
  • Missed season30%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
70%hang on~8.3 PPG·30%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–8.79.5
10 most similar players
Ashton Dulin91%
2022·WR123 · 6.1 PPG
Jalen Tolbert87%
2024·WR46 · 8.9 PPG
James Washington86%
2022·Missed the season
Tyquan Thornton86%
2025·WR85 · 6.7 PPG
Chris Moore86%
2020·Missed the season
Josh Reynolds86%
2022·WR70 · 8.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Buy-low — we value him above the market
Why
Average usage productionSolid target shareAge 26 · ascendingTDs due to regress
  • ▲Touchdown-luck regression
Our view vs Market↑ 24 pts above market
Our view
42
Market
18
Long career runwayTD regression risk

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Target Volume

    Brown operates as a 4th/5th option in a loaded WR corps featuring Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter (sidelined mid-2025 but expected back), Parker Washington, and newly-acquired Jakobi Meyers. Even with Hunter's knee injury limiting his 2026 availability, target competition remains severe.

  • Minimal Production Trend

    2025 stats show 20 receptions, 227 yards through 14 games—averaging ~16 yards per game. He has been benched or limited repeatedly and deemed off-fantasy-radar multiple times during the season, indicating offensive staff has lost confidence.

  • Depth Chart

    Brown is listed 7th on the Jaguars WR depth chart behind Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, Travis Hunter (IR but returning 2026), Tim Patrick, and Tim Jones. His snap rates plummeted to 21-27% in mid-season games even with injuries to elite teammates, and he was a healthy scratch Week 13.

  • Scheme Fit

    Despite signing a $10M prove-it deal, Brown failed to capitalize when Travis Hunter went down mid-season. Jacksonville traded for Jakobi Meyers at the deadline specifically because Brown couldn't answer the bell, and reports indicate he's gone six straight games without a reception heading into late 2025.

  • Roster Security

    Brown signed a 1-year $10M deal in March 2025 but projects to earn only ~$2M in 2026 per Spotrac — a massive market correction indicating the league no longer views him as a starter-caliber asset. He is likely a UFA heading into 2026 with no guaranteed future in Jacksonville.

  • Target Competition

    Luke McCaffrey has the inside track on Washington's slot role and projects as the primary slot receiver opposite McLaurin. Brown is competing for leftover WR3/4 targets despite re-signing with a team that clearly prefers McCaffrey in that role.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Situation Upgrade

    Brown escaped Jacksonville's suffocating WR room (Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Jakobi Meyers) and returned to Washington, where the offense is competently run and the QB is elite. The depth chart upgrade is dramatic relative to 2025.

  • QB Chemistry

    Brown posted 14-229-1 across three 2024 playoff games with Jayden Daniels — the only sustained stretch of his career. Washington re-signed him specifically for that connection, and Daniels' trajectory as a passer makes any target share meaningful.

  • Usage & Volume

    If Jacksonville commits to the passing game or Brown solidifies a role in the starting lineup, target share could expand significantly from current levels.

  • New Team Reset

    As a 2026 free agent, Brown could land in a WR-needy situation with less competition. His 4.33 speed and $10M salary in 2025 suggests teams still see theoretical talent, though his tape doesn't support optimism.

  • Volume Opportunity

    Zach Ertz and Deebo Samuel departed Washington, opening significant target share. Even as WR3/4, Brown could capture 40-55 targets in a high-efficiency passing offense if the right opportunities emerge.

  • QB Dependency

    Reunites with Jayden Daniels, an elite young QB and ascending offense — any earned role comes with premium passing-game quality.

Format Comparison

Dyami Brown — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest811—
PPR SF669-142