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Dont'e Thornton headshot

Dont'e Thornton

WR · #109

LV · WR · Age 23

Redraft rank
WR134
◆WR134 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#407
ADP
WR70
Consensus
Tight

Dont'e Thornton's rookie season saw his target share fall to just 4%, confirming he is not tracking toward consistent volume in an offense with significant depth at WR and a heavy run-first approach.

Role & trajectory
Thornton enters the upcoming season as the fourth or fifth option on the Raiders' WR depth chart, behind Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor, Jack Bech, and Malik Benson. His role is further constrained by a crowded TE room with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer.
Projected outlook
Thornton's projected outlook remains limited due to his low target share (6.4%) and air yards share (16.3%), indicating he will struggle to establish consistent volume in a competitive WR room with multiple high-value targets ahead of him.
Risk & schedule
The primary risk for Thornton is the direct competition from rookie Jack Bech, who was drafted in the second round and could further limit his already minimal opportunities. Additionally, the Raiders' investment in TE (Bowers/Mayer) and RB (Jeanty) positions structurally limits WR volume.
Value vs ADP-64 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR134
vs
Market ADP
WR70
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Age / role
age 23 WR
Minor
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR134 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR70 ADP · -64 slots
Major
Neutral: Source agreement
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-23 receivers most similar to Dont'e Thornton's 2025 season, 1 finished WR2, 8 finished WR4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

80%
  • WR210%(1)
  • WR4+80%(8)
  • Missed season10%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range6.9 median
0.6p25–p75 2.9–9.912.2
10 most similar players
Miles Boykin94%
2020·WR101 · 5.0 PPG
Kenny Golladay91%
2018·WR21 · 13.8 PPG
James Washington91%
2019·WR57 · 8.9 PPG
Bryan Edwards90%
2022·WR178 · 1.1 PPG
Allen Lazard90%
2020·WR65 · 10.6 PPG
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside87%
2020·WR167 · 2.9 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Usage & Volume2

    Target share trended down to 4% in Week 18, capping a rookie season of 10 catches, 135 yards, 0 TDs on 30 targets across 15 games — WR134 in PPR. He failed to establish consistent role despite 8 starts, suggesting scheme and/or trust issues with the prior staff.

  • Pecking Order Regression

    Thornton has fallen to 3rd WR on the depth chart behind Tre Tucker and Jack Bech, with Jack Bech (2nd round) providing direct competition. Minimal 2025 production (98 yards) suggests limited NFL translational ability despite athletic tools.

  • Target Competition

    The Raiders added Jalen Nailor (FA) and Dareke Young (Kubiak familiarity from Seattle) in the 2026 offseason, and are expected to draft a WR as early as #36. Thornton enters the year as WR2 behind Jack Bech in a six-deep room with legitimate NFL talent at every spot.

  • Depth Chart Position

    Post-offseason reports place Thornton 4th or 5th on the depth chart behind Tucker, Nailor (free agent addition), and Bech, with rookie Malik Benson also in the mix — he is no longer tracking toward a starting role and is competing for a rotational spot.

  • WR Competition

    The Raiders added Jalen Nailor in free agency and drafted Malik Benson (R6), further compressing a room that already had Bech and Tucker ahead of Thornton — three credible starters occupy the targets Thornton needs.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns

    If Tucker or Bech suffer injuries, Thornton could immediately step into a starting role. Tre Tucker's injury history makes this a realistic scenario within the next 1-2 seasons.

  • Late Game Development

    At 23.2 years old, Thornton is in his prime developmental window. Rare athleticism (6-5, 4.30 40) could unlock explosive production if given consistent offensive touches in Year 2-3.

  • Athletic Profile

    Thornton's rare 6'5" frame with 4.30 speed represents one of the best physical profiles in his draft class, creating lottery ticket upside if development clicks in Year 2-3 of prime development window at age 23.

  • Scheme Fit

    Klint Kubiak's 2025 Seahawks offense was a top-10 unit with designed perimeter routes for big, fast WRs — exactly Thornton's profile. A fresh coaching relationship could unlock usage that Pete Carroll's staff never found, particularly on vertical and intermediate crosser concepts.

  • QB Dependency

    If Fernando Mendoza develops quickly, Thornton at 23 would be in prime years alongside him for a potential 3-5 year window. A rookie QB bonding with a young outside WR is a classic dynasty buy-low setup that drives large value swings.

  • QB Upgrade

    Fernando Mendoza arrives as the #1 overall pick and resets the Raiders' QB ceiling over a multi-year arc; any WR who builds early camp chemistry with Mendoza has a legitimate path to becoming his go-to target as the offense matures.

Format Comparison

Dont'e Thornton — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest939—
PPR SF771-168