DK Metcalf

WR · #40

PIT · WR · Age 28

START

DK Metcalf's consistent high target share over the last four games signals his role as a primary receiver for PIT.

Role & volume

Over the past four games, DK Metcalf has maintained an average target share of 23.5%, indicating he is a key part of the offensive game plan.

Projected role

With Mike McCarthy at the helm and consistent usage patterns, Metcalf's established role as one of PIT's primary receivers remains intact.

Range (floor–ceiling)

Metcalf's recent performance shows a floor of 6.2 PPR points in a single game and an average of 12.7 PPR points over the last four games, suggesting reliable production even on off-days.

Intel may be outdated · updated 5 days ago

Current statusPIT

Our read vs. the market

Beta

Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line

Why

Strong usage productionStrong target shareAge 28 · veteranTDs due to rebound

Our view vs Market↓ 8 pts below market

Our view

Market

TD rebound upsideElite target shareProducing above value

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

Usage & Volume
Pittsburgh added veteran Michael Pittman Jr. and drafted Germie Bernard in the second round of the 2026 draft, and Metcalf's target share slid from 36% to 16% across his final four 2025 games (including the Wild Card loss) even as his snap share held at 86%+.
QB Dependency
Aaron Rodgers is reported to be playing his final season in 2026, and the presumptive successor, 2026 third-round pick Drew Allar, is unproven, creating real downside risk to Metcalf's efficiency and value beyond this season.

Opportunity Flags

Target Volume
Despite the crowded receiver room, reporting still projects Metcalf and Pittman as the clear outside 1-2 in the target hierarchy under the current coaching staff, preserving his volume floor.
Contract Situation
Pittsburgh restructured Metcalf's contract in 2026 to open roughly $18 million in cap space, signaling continued short-term financial investment in his role.

Format Comparison

DK Metcalf — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR 1QBBest	2,909	—
PPR SF	2,170	-739

Format

Value

vs Best

PPR 1QBBest

2,909

—

PPR SF

2,170

-739