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Dillon Gabriel headshot

Dillon Gabriel

QB · #57

CLE · QB · Age 25

Redraft rank
QB66
◆QB66 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#544
ADP
QB42
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP-24 slots (reach)
Our rank
QB66
vs
Market ADP
QB42
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
QB66 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
QB42 ADP · -24 slots
Major
Neutral: Source agreement, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-25 quarterbacks most similar to Dillon Gabriel's 2025 season, 1 finished QB2, 4 finished QB4+, 5 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB2 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

40%49%
  • QB210%(1)
  • QB4+40%(4)
  • Missed season49%(5)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
51%hang on~12.1 PPG·49%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–13.714.2
10 most similar players
Malik Willis98%
2025·QB43 · 12.8 PPG
Kyle Allen94%
2021·Missed the season
Gardner Minshew93%
2023·QB21 · 12.3 PPG
PJ Walker92%
2022·QB44 · 6.5 PPG
Nathan Peterman89%
2019·Missed the season
Jarrett Stidham88%
2021·Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Dillon Gabriel's dynasty outlook remains deeply bearish and has continued to erode. New head coach Todd Monken's QB competition is functionally a two-man race between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders, with Gabriel reportedly relegated to a handful of competitive reps and the addition of sixth-round rookie Taylen Green further crowding a four-QB room that cannot survive roster cuts intact. The structured data confirms the collapse — snap share down to 2%, 7.0 PPG, PPR QB40 — and reporting suggests both a narrow path to the 53-man roster and a thin trade market, so any exit comes at depressed value. The lone upside is the well-worn Watson injury risk, but Gabriel sits third in that line behind Sanders, making meaningful 2026 volume unlikely. Recommendation: SELL now for any pick/depth return in dynasty before a likely cut or quiet trade craters his value further; if no buyer exists, this is a HOLD-to-drop in shallow formats over the next 2-4 weeks.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Depth Chart2

    Gabriel is firmly QB2/3 in Cleveland behind Shedeur Sanders, who took over as starter in the final weeks of 2025 and is the clear franchise QB going forward. His last three games showed 0-2% snap share, confirming he has no path to meaningful snaps barring injury.

  • Roster Security2

    Reports from beat writers explicitly label Gabriel as 'expendable' as the Browns commit to Sanders. With Watson also occupying a roster spot (due to cap reasons), Gabriel is the most cuttable QB on the roster heading into 2026 camp.

  • Trade Likely

    Browns insider Zac Jackson reports Cleveland will likely trade Gabriel after his rookie season, making him the odd man out in a QB room with Sanders, Watson, and potentially a draft pick. His connection to fired coach Kevin Stefanski eliminates his internal advocate.

  • Release Risk

    Browns insider Mary Kay Cabot specifically flagged Gabriel as potential 'trade currency around the Aug. 26 roster cutdown date.' With four QBs on the roster and Watson/Sanders leading the competition, Gabriel is on the roster bubble.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns2

    Deshaun Watson has a documented injury history; if sidelined for extended stretches, Gabriel could inherit significant starting opportunities and prove his value in a live game environment.

  • Young QB Development

    At 25 years old with limited NFL exposure, Gabriel still has developmental runway and could emerge as a competent starter if given extended playing time, making him a lottery-ticket hold for patient dynasty investors.

  • Fresh Start Trade

    Multiple reports suggest Gabriel would benefit from a fresh start elsewhere. A trade to a QB-needy team could provide a clearer developmental path and renewed opportunity, though likely as a backup or camp competitor.

  • New Opportunity

    If cut at the Aug. 26 deadline, a 25-year-old QB with starting NFL experience (6 starts, 937 yards, 7 TDs) could attract interest from QB-needy teams as a QB2 or developmental starter — meaningfully more valuable dynasty-wise than being buried on Cleveland's bench.

  • Competitive Opening

    Shedeur Sanders is a rookie entering a new scheme with a new coaching staff. A rocky start in 2026 training camp or preseason could theoretically reopen the competition, though current reporting suggests the Browns are committed to Sanders regardless of early bumps.

Format Comparison

Dillon Gabriel — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest473—
PPR SF454-19