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De'Von Achane headshot

De'Von Achane

RB · #6

MIA · RB · Age 24

Redraft rank
RB5
▲RB5 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#25
ADP
RB5
Consensus
Coin flip

De'Von Achane's $68M contract extension locks in his role as Miami's primary back, guaranteeing a high carry share of 55.3% and snap share of 75.4%, despite the team's rebuild.

Role & trajectory
Achane enters 2026 with a secure role as Miami's lead back, backed by his $68M contract extension and untouched depth chart, ensuring he maintains a high carry share of 55.3% and snap share of 75.4%, though the addition of Malik Willis at QB may suppress his per-touch efficiency.
Projected outlook
Despite Miami's rebuild and the loss of key offensive players, Achane is projected to see a career-high touch count in 2026, with ESPN projecting him as the centerpiece of the offense, aiming for over 300 touches and 1,800 total yards.
Risk & schedule
Achane's recent shoulder surgery and a potential drop in per-touch efficiency due to Miami's new QB and WR corps pose risks to his scoring ceiling, with CBS already flagging him as a bust risk at his current ADP.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
RB5
vs
Market ADP
RB5
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
RB5 · proj. consensus
Major
+
Age / role
age 24 RB
Minor
Case against
−
Source agreement
±13 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: ADP value
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-24 backs most similar to De'Von Achane's 2025 season, 4 finished RB1, 1 finished RB2, 3 finished RB3, 2 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → RB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

40%29%21%
  • RB140%(4)
  • RB210%(1)
  • RB329%(3)
  • Missed season21%(2)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range13.3 median
0.0p25–p75 9.2–16.622.8
10 most similar players
Alvin Kamara92%
2020·RB1 · 24.2 PPG
Le'Veon Bell87%
2018·Missed the season
Breece Hall87%
2025·RB23 · 13.0 PPG
Christian McCaffrey87%
2020·Missed the season
Leonard Fournette84%
2020·RB12 · 13.7 PPG
Rhamondre Stevenson84%
2023·RB36 · 12.1 PPG

+4 more analogs

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionElite carry shareAge 24 · ascendingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↑ 3 pts above market
Our view
97
Market
94
TD rebound upsideProducing above valueElite carry share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (8 flags)

Risk Flags

4
  • Injury Concerns

    Achane underwent shoulder surgery in May 2026 for the injury suffered in Week 17 and was not a full OTA participant as of late May, creating real uncertainty about his conditioning and availability entering training camp and Week 1.

  • TD Regression

    Achane scored 12 total touchdowns in 2025 against roughly 8.4 expected, a +3.6 positive variance that typically reverts and could deflate his fantasy scoring even if his touch share holds steady.

  • QB Dependency

    With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both gone and run-capable Malik Willis now at QB, Miami's checkdown and red-zone passing volume could increasingly bypass Achane, consistent with the target-share decline already showing in his full-season trend.

  • Long-Term Wear

    Achane logged roughly 305 combined touches in 2025 as a true workhorse; sustained volume at that pace raises attrition risk in years three and four of his new four-year deal.

Opportunity Flags

4
  • Contract Situation

    Miami's 4-year, $68M extension ($32M guaranteed, third-highest AAV among RBs) signed in May 2026 removes any near-term trade or benching risk and confirms Achane as the long-term centerpiece of the offense.

  • Usage & Volume2

    The RB2-4 depth chart (Wright, Gordon, Mattison) is pure rotational/depth talent, and Miami's entire 2026 draft capital went to WR/TE rather than RB, leaving Achane's touch share effectively unchallenged.

  • Elite Production

    Achane led the NFL in yards per carry at 5.7 in 2025, evidence of explosive, talent-driven production that isn't purely a byproduct of volume and should help sustain value through any touch fluctuation.

Format Comparison

De'Von Achane — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest6,608—
PPR SF5,789-819