BAL · RB · Age 32
Comp set for Derrick Henry is too thin or too uncertain to publish a finish-tier probability — the analogs below are shown for context only.
Small cohort (~3 effective analogs) — shown for context, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
Derrick Henry remains Baltimore's uncontested workhorse entering his age-32 season, coming off a PPR RB9 finish (279.5 pts, 16.4 PPG) with snap and carry shares both trending up and no meaningful draft competition — only late-round R5 pick Adam Randall behind Justice Hill and Rasheen Ali. His value is real but format-dependent: an elite redraft and win-now asset (#12 redraft RB) but a depreciating dynasty piece (roughly RB24–27, overall ~RB2 tier) given his age, 2,800+ career touches, minimal receiving role (15 catches), and a contract that expires after 2027. The two key catalysts are a fully healthy Lamar Jackson boosting his TD environment and the looming age cliff that could arrive without warning. For rebuilding teams this is a clear sell-now-into-a-contender at peak production; for contenders he's a strong buy at a dynasty-discounted price relative to weekly output. Recommendation: HOLD for contenders / SELL for rebuilders, with a 1–2 year window before age and contract close it down.
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
RB age 32 — entering/past typical value cliff
Henry and Keaton Mitchell were designated as first- and second-down backs, with Henry intended to start two-thirds of the drives, while Rasheen Ali was the third-down specialist. Snap share volatility exists despite his primary role, and his season average is 53.2% of snaps.
Henry had 1,595 rushing yards and 307 rushing attempts last season. He's in his seventh 1,000-yard rushing season and became only the fifth player in NFL history with five seasons of 13+ rushing TDs. Red zone volume guarantees scoring ceiling.
After a career-high 36 carries for 216 yards and four touchdowns in Green Bay, the prevailing belief is that Henry gets stronger as the season goes on as opponents' bodies get achier. His playoff performance provides win-now value for contenders.
Henry signed a two year extension with the Baltimore Ravens on May 19, 2025 worth $30.0 million in new money with $25 million fully guaranteed, securing him through the 2026 season. This guarantees his workhorse role for the remainder of his dynasty value window.
Henry paced all running backs in rushing TDs (16) in his first season with Baltimore, benefiting from Lamar Jackson's mobility creating favorable defensive alignments. The Ravens' run-heavy scheme and Jackson's presence maximize Henry's goal-line and rushing opportunity share.
Keaton Mitchell walked in free agency, removing Henry's only credible early-down competitor. With Mitchell gone, Henry enters 2026 as the uncontested lead back on a Super Bowl contender — carry share (74%) and snap share (71%) were already trending up and should hold or expand.
Lamar Jackson remains the anchor of Baltimore's offense, commanding defensive attention that creates elite RB run lanes. Henry benefits from arguably the best QB-adjacent run-blocking scheme in the NFL, providing a consistent floor even under a new play-caller.
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 3,225 | — |
| PPR SF | 2,719 | -506 |