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Derrick Henry headshot

Derrick Henry

RB · #22

BAL · RB · Age 32

▲START

Derrick Henry's elite rushing volume, with a carry share above 70% in his last game before the team change, sets him apart as a high-volume workhorse back.

Role & volume
Henry averaged a 53.8% snap share and a 74.1% carry share over his last four games with his previous team, indicating he is the primary ball carrier.
Projected role
With BAL, Henry's recent signing as the highest-paid running back in NFL history suggests a continued high-volume workload and RB9 value on our board.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Despite some variability in his PPR points over the last four games (10.0 to 45.6), Henry's floor remains strong at around 10 PPR points, with a ceiling of 45+ PPR points.
Intel may be outdated · updated 4 days ago
Current statusBAL
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Slight sell-high — we value him a bit below the marketSlight
Why
Strong usage productionElite carry shareAge 32 · window closingTDs due to rebound
  • ▼Dynasty age curve
  • ▼Touchdown-luck regression
Our view vs Market↓ 15 pts below market
Our view
58
Market
73
Age-curve riskElite carry shareProducing above value

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Contract Situation

    Henry is among the position's more prominent pending free agents once his current deal runs out, and while he has publicly expressed a desire to stay in Baltimore and chase a title, no extension is confirmed, leaving his post-2026 team and role unresolved.

  • Draft Capital

    Baltimore spent a fifth-round rookie pick on Adam Randall, a depth/succession move rather than an immediate threat to snaps, but it signals the front office is starting to plan for life after Henry.

Opportunity Flags

3
  • Usage & Volume

    Henry is handling 61% of Baltimore's backfield carries in a run-leaning offense (team PROE -10%), a true bell-cow workload with Justice Hill and Rasheen Ali confined to change-of-pace and special-teams roles respectively.

  • Coaching Continuity

    Incoming offensive coordinator Declan Doyle previously ran a top-three rushing offense, pointing toward continuity of Baltimore's ground-heavy approach rather than a shift toward more passing volume that would dilute Henry's touches.

  • Target Volume

    Camp reports point to an uptick in designed perimeter touches and pass-catching work for Henry, which could modestly diversify his scoring profile beyond pure between-the-tackles rushing, though he has historically been a non-factor as a receiver.

Format Comparison

Derrick Henry — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest3,402—
PPR SF2,809-593