Derrick Henry

RB age 32 — entering/past typical value cliff

Henry took 43.6% of the Ravens' snaps in Week 16, below his season average of 53.2%, while Keaton Mitchell had 14 snaps and Rasheen Ali had 15 snaps in Week 17. Baltimore's committee approach limits Henry's ceiling and could compress further if the team manages his workload at age 32+.

Henry remains limited as a receiver, ranking 51st among RBs in targets last season. This ceiling-limiting role in a modern passing offense reduces PPR upside and TD volatility, particularly in PPR formats.

New HC Jesse Minter and OC Declan Doyle replace the Harbaugh staff Henry thrived under; Doyle's outside-zone scheme is a meaningful departure from the Ravens' traditional power-run identity and the integration ramp-up under a first-year OC is an unquantified risk.

A full Baltimore coaching overhaul installed new HC Jesse Minter and new OC Declan Doyle for 2026. Their NFL play-calling and RB usage philosophy are unproven at this level, introducing genuine scheme-fit uncertainty around Henry's touch volume and role definition.

His two-year, $30M extension runs only through 2027 (age-33 season), and the Ravens have signaled they will assess his future as he enters the final years of the deal. The dynasty asset has a hard, near-term expiration.

Henry had 1,595 rushing yards and 307 rushing attempts last season. He's in his seventh 1,000-yard rushing season and became only the fifth player in NFL history with five seasons of 13+ rushing TDs. Red zone volume guarantees scoring ceiling.

After a career-high 36 carries for 216 yards and four touchdowns in Green Bay, the prevailing belief is that Henry gets stronger as the season goes on as opponents' bodies get achier. His playoff performance provides win-now value for contenders.

Henry paced all running backs in rushing TDs (16) in his first season with Baltimore, benefiting from Lamar Jackson's mobility creating favorable defensive alignments. The Ravens' run-heavy scheme and Jackson's presence maximize Henry's goal-line and rushing opportunity share.

Henry signed a two year extension with the Baltimore Ravens on May 19, 2025 worth $30.0 million in new money with $25 million fully guaranteed, securing him through the 2026 season. This guarantees his workhorse role for the remainder of his dynasty value window.

Lamar Jackson (value: 9,407) remains the anchor of Baltimore's offense, commanding defensive attention that creates elite RB run lanes. Henry benefits from arguably the best QB-adjacent run-blocking scheme in the NFL, providing a consistent floor even under a new play-caller.

Keaton Mitchell walked in free agency, removing Henry's only credible early-down competitor. With Mitchell gone, Henry enters 2026 as the uncontested lead back on a Super Bowl contender — carry share (74%) and snap share (71%) were already trending up and should hold or expand.