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Deebo Samuel headshot

Deebo Samuel

WR · #95

FA · WR · Age 30

Redraft rank
WR82
•WR82 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#176
ADP
WR83
Consensus
Tight

Deebo Samuel's release from the Commanders on July 29, 2026, marks a significant shift in his career trajectory, with his future role and target volume highly uncertain.

Role & trajectory
Samuel's declining efficiency and reduced target share to just 26% by the end of the 2025 season indicate a diminished role in any new system, with his age and athleticism concerns further complicating his fit.
Projected outlook
Despite being unsigned as of late April 2026, Samuel's potential return to Kyle Shanahan's 49ers or landing spots like the Chargers could restore some value if he secures a role that maximizes his unique skill set.
Risk & schedule
The risk of Samuel signing with a team late in free agency, limiting his offseason preparation and early-season opportunity, is significant. His current WR82 ranking reflects the uncertainty surrounding his future usage and production.
Value vs ADP+1 slots of value
Our rank
WR82
vs
Market ADP
WR83
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR82 · proj. consensus
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Source agreement, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 8 age-30 receivers most similar to Deebo Samuel's 2025 season, 8 finished WR4+.

Based on just 8 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

100%
  • WR4+100%(8)
Next-season PPG range6.8 median
5.7p25–p75 5.9–9.812.9
8 most similar players
KaVontae Turpin73%
2025·WR79 · 5.6 PPG
Kalif Raymond72%
2023·WR75 · 5.7 PPG
Cooper Kupp72%
2023·WR39 · 13.2 PPG
Jarvis Landry71%
2022·WR108 · 6.7 PPG
Adam Thielen65%
2019·WR51 · 11.9 PPG
DeAndre Carter59%
2022·WR60 · 6.9 PPG

+2 more analogs

Current statusFree Agent
Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Contract Situation2

    Deebo's Commanders contract voided after 2025, making him an unrestricted free agent as of April 2026. The market has been slower than anticipated, raising concerns about perceived league-wide value at age 30.

  • Age And Decline

    At 30 years old, Samuel is entering the decline phase for WRs. His 2025 production was lackluster with 72 catches for 727 yards and five touchdowns, averaging a career-low 10.1 yards per catch, and was barely used as a ballcarrier with 75 yards and a single score.

  • Scheme Fit

    The Commanders used Samuel on passes at or behind the line of scrimmage last season, limiting his impact. New OC David Blough's system emphasizes explosive downfield plays, which may not suit Samuel's role.

  • Age Concerns

    At 30, Samuel posted a career-low 10.1 YPC in 2025, suggesting genuine athleticism erosion rather than just scheme misfit; elite separation and run-after-catch upside that defined his peak are fading.

  • Offensive Context

    Without a team at the start of May, Samuel's 2026 scheme fit, QB situation, and target volume are entirely unknown; late free agent signings typically mean limited offseason prep and minimal early-season opportunity.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Offensive Context2

    A return to Kyle Shanahan's 49ers system—where Samuel earned All-Pro honors—is being reported as a realistic outcome, with a 2yr/$12M deal circulated. Shanahan's scheme uniquely maximizes Samuel's after-catch ability and dual-threat usage; reunion would be the single biggest value catalyst available.

  • Scheme Fit3

    OC Mike McDaniel—who developed Samuel's skill set in San Francisco—is now with the Chargers alongside Justin Herbert, making this a scheme-perfect fit that could restore top-30 weekly upside. Dolphins interest via similar McDaniel connections also adds optionality.

  • 49ers Reunion Interest

    49ers tight end George Kittle sent out a recruiting pitch for Samuel to return this offseason, and Christian McCaffrey indicated Samuel would be welcomed back, saying 'Deebo is one of my favorite guys I've ever played with' and 'There's no question he would be welcomed back.'

Format Comparison

Deebo Samuel — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,085—
PPR SF912-173