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Dawson Knox headshot

Dawson Knox

TE · #49

BUF · TE · Age 29

Redraft rank
TE38
◆TE38 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#231
ADP
TE26
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP-12 slots (reach)
Our rank
TE38
vs
Market ADP
TE26
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
TE38 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
TE26 ADP · -12 slots
Major
−
Source agreement
±9 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-29 tight ends most similar to Dawson Knox's 2025 season, 1 finished TE2, 1 finished TE3, 6 finished TE4+, 2 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

60%19%
  • TE210%(1)
  • TE310%(1)
  • TE4+60%(6)
  • Missed season19%(2)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range3.1 median
0.0p25–p75 1.6–5.08.2
10 most similar players
James O'Shaughnessy91%
2021·TE49 · 7.2 PPG
Hayden Hurst87%
2022·TE15 · 8.5 PPG
Mo Alie-Cox87%
2021·TE28 · 4.7 PPG
Jordan Akins86%
2021·TE55 · 3.5 PPG
Tyler Kroft86%
2022·TE90 · 2.4 PPG
Ryan Griffin83%
2021·TE37 · 4.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Knox enters 2026 as the firmly entrenched TE2 in Buffalo after reworking his deal into a cap-friendly three-year contract through 2028 (a pay cut to stay rather than be cut), while the Bills picked up Dalton Kincaid's fifth-year option to cement Kincaid as the TE1. His 2025 target share fell to ~13% and dipped further (9-13%) through the playoff run, confirming a blocking/red-zone role rather than a fantasy-startable one, and his #26 PPR finish was touchdown-dependent. The clearest path to value is contingent on Kincaid's recurring injury history opening up TE1 reps in an elite Josh Allen offense, but that is a bet on misfortune, not a baseline. At 29 and on the back half of the TE aging curve, his dynasty arrow points down outside of TE-premium/deep formats. Recommendation: SELL/HOLD — if a contender values him as cheap red-zone TE depth, move him now; otherwise he is a low-priority hold whose value only spikes on a Kincaid injury over the next 1-2 years.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Buy-low — we value him above the market
Why
Average usage productionAverage target shareAge 29 · veteranTDs due to regress
  • ▲Touchdown-luck regression
Our view vs Market↑ 35 pts above market
Our view
45
Market
10

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Target Volume2

    Knox sits second on the depth chart behind Dalton Kincaid. In the 2025 season, Knox secured 36 of 49 targets for 417 yards and four touchdowns, indicating a limited share in a two-TE system dominated by Kincaid.

  • Roster Cap Pressure

    The Buffalo Bills are expected to cut Knox despite his decent 2025 campaign, as his current deal represents a significant cap hit. Buffalo faces being over $5.6 million over the cap. A pre-June 1 cut saves $9.6M in cap space with $7.4M dead money, while a post-June 1 cut saves $12M with $5M dead money.

  • Cap Casualty Risk

    Knox could be released as a pre-June 1 cut saving Buffalo roughly $9.6 million with $7.4 million in dead money, or as a post-June 1 cut saving $12 million with just over $5 million in dead money. Buffalo currently has -,001 in 2026 salary cap space, making Knox a prime cut candidate.

  • Depth Chart

    Knox appeared in all 17 regular-season games in 2025, securing 36 of 49 targets for 417 yards and four touchdowns, clearly operating as the TE2 behind Dalton Kincaid. His role is capped in Buffalo's two-TE system with minimal path to expanded usage.

  • Usage & Volume

    13% target share and a #26 PPR finish on 6.4 PPG reflect a true streamer/insurance role; even with stable 64% snaps the receiving volume is too thin for standalone dynasty relevance.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns2

    Kincaid's knee injury limited his snap count significantly throughout 2025 and will require offseason rehabilitation. A significant Kincaid injury could elevate Knox to starter status, though he remains a secondary receiving option.

  • Redzone Floor Value

    Knox plays a significant role as a blocker and red-zone target for Allen. While capped in total upside, his established red-zone chemistry with Josh Allen provides PPR floor value if Kincaid misses games.

  • Landing Spot

    If released, Knox could find TE2/veteran depth opportunities with teams needing tight end help. He'll play a big role as a blocker and red-zone target for Allen in the playoffs, skills that translate to other systems seeking a veteran presence.

  • Scheme Fit

    If McDermott and Dorsey remain in place, Knox benefits from an established offensive system that knows how to deploy him efficiently in the middle of the field.

  • New Offensive System

    The tight end group was one of the more productive groups on the Bills roster, as Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady emphasized the intermediate passing game. If Brady's system continues under new coaching, Knox could benefit from intermediate TE routes.

Format Comparison

Dawson Knox — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest729—
PPR SF610-119